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northam43

01/11/14 8:28 PM

#1684 RE: foxridge #1682

foxridge - These are the basic documents posted at my facebook group "SPX Cycles", if you have any questions after you read these, let me know.

SPX CYCLES INTRO:
SPX Cycles is basically a two phased trend following stock trading system. Phase 1 is mainly considered the down trend phase and Phase 2 is considered the up trend phase. That is the basic two components of the SPX Cycle System (SCS). The best part about this system is that the set up is the same in all time frames (ie..60 min, Daily, Weekly & Monthly). The primary indicators used in the SCS are the EMA(11)high, EMA(11)low, EMA(3)close, and EMA(8)close. The EMA(11)high indicator is called the Upper Trend Line(UTL). The EMA(11)low indicator is called the Lower Trend Line(LTL). The EMA(3) and EMA(8) are both used together, and I consider as a combined indicator which I call the EMA 3/8, the EMA 3/8's main purpose is for long term trend changes and even though the indicator is on each time frame, the Monthly timeframe is the one used for the SCS. SCS secondary indicators are the MACD(12,26,9) and CCI(24), these indicators are basically only used when the market is going sideways, when usually means the market is in the process of a trend change. SCS Data Sheets are excel spreed sheets that have been created for each time frame, the SCS Data Sheets track critical data concerning the SCS. The data inputted on the SCS Data Sheets are critical to the success of the SCS. For more information on the SCS Data Sheets see the document titled "SPX Data Sheets".

This document is created to define and expalin what a Phase 1 is in the SPX Cycle System. The Phase 1 is the down trend phase of the SPX Cycle System. For a Phase 1 to be confirmed the following criteria must be meet exactly. A SPX 60 min Phase 1 is confirmed when the price opens below the 60 min UTL at the beginning of the hour and remains below the UTL until the end of that hour, then a 60 min Phase 1 is confirmed. A SPX Daily Phase 1 is confirmed when the price opens below the Daily UTL at the beginning of the trading day and remains below the UTL the entire trading day, then at the close of the trading day the Daily Phase 1 is confirmed.
A SPX Weekly Phase 1 is confirmed when the price opens below the Weekly UTL on the first trading day of the week, and remains below the UTL the entire week, then on the last day of the week at the close of the market, a Weekly Phase 1 is confirmed. A SPX Monthly Phase 1 is confirmed when the price opens below the Monthly UTL on the first trading day of the Month, and remains below the UTL the entire month, then on the last trading day of the month at the close of the market, a Monthly Phase 1 is confirmed.

This document is intended to define and explain how a Phase 2 is confirmed in the SPX Cycles System. The Phase 2 is the up trend Phase of the SPX Cycle System. The Phase 2 is the easiest and fastest to confirm. A SPX 60 min, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Phase 2 is confirmed when the price touches their respective UTL, there is no waiting. When the price touches the UTL it is immediately confirmed and the Phase 2 remains in effect until a Phase 1 is confirmed. Pretty simple.

SPX Cycle System(SCS) Data Sheets:

Purpose of the SCS data sheets: The data sheets are an important component of the SCS. The data sheets track what I consider to be critical data in the SCS. The spreed sheet provides mathematical calculations and averages are determined for what I consider to be the most critical data elements of the data sheets. Data sheets are established for each time frame, the 60 min Data Sheet, the Daily Data Sheet, the Weekly Data Sheet, and the Monthly Data Sheet. I also have a Data Sheet for what I call the Major Market Trend Periods, which is the tracking of the Monthly EMA 3/8 Bull/Bear crossings. The newest additions to the Data Sheets is what I call the SPX Cycles Flow Chart. The SPX Cycles Flow Chart is basically looking at the entire flow of the SCS on one data sheet.

The time frame Data Sheets which consist of the 60 min, Daily, Weekly and Monthly are all pretty much set up the same way and track the same data. Of course the faster the time frame the more data will be accumulated. The critical averages on the time frame Data Sheets are the average trading hours, days, weeks, months for Phase 1's and Phase 2's.

ycle Projection Formula:

When a Phase 1/2 cycle is confirmed, I will use the below formula in determining the initial projection of the cycle. Projections may change during the confirmed cycle. Example: A 60 min Phase 1 is initially confirmed as a projected short cycle, then the 60 min EMA 3 confirms a crossing below the 60 min LTL, the projection then changes to average, then the MACD leading indicator confirms a crossing below the MACD Histo zero line, the projection then changes to extended.

The SPX Cycles Projection Formula will not be right 100% of the time, but using it in conjunction with the data sheets it should be an excellent indicator as to the duration of the confirmed cycle.

Phase 1 confirmed:

MACD leading indicator above the zero line, EMA 3 above the LTL = Short cycle

MACD leading indicator above the zero line, EMA 3 below the LTL = Average cycle

MACD leading indicator below the zero line, EMA 3 above the LTL = Average cycle

MACD leading indicator below the zero line, EMA 3 below the LTL = Extended cycle


Phase 2 confirmed:

MACD leading indicator above the zero line, EMA 3 above the UTL = Extended cycle

MACD leading indicator above the zero line, EMA 3 below the UTL = Average cycle

MACD leading indicator below the zero line, EMA 3 above the UTL = Average cycle

MACD leading indicator below the zero line, EMA 3 below the UTL =Short cycle

Here is my website that has all the SPX Cycle reports:

User Id: spxcycles
password: stock

http://northamlindyjr.com/SPXCycles/SPXCycleReports/SpxCycleReportsWebpage.html


If you have any questions regarding SPX Cycles, please don't hesitate to ask.