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sgolds

01/21/06 11:11 AM

#69985 RE: bobs10 #69984

bobs10, let's say that your observation is correct. (I do agree with parts of it, particularly the hubris which led to the bad Itanium & Pentium decisions.)

That does not mean that AMD becomes the new Intel. Far from it. Intel is a great company built upon wise decisions and excellent execution combined with a fortunate set of circumstances in the 80s & 90s which are not likely to repeat.

In the matured computer industry where commodity pricing rules there can never be another Intel.

(Now, you may say that the new dual core chips, which get a premium price, argue against the commodity view but I think these mark the endgame of premium processors.)

Although there probably never will be another Intel there is still room for good, profitable growth for AMD in this new world.
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CombJelly

01/21/06 11:36 AM

#69988 RE: bobs10 #69984

"Starting with Jerry and continuing through Hector, in hindsight, there has been a virtually unbroken stream or very prescient decisions made."

Whatever else you may say about the Colonel, he knows the industry and he never was afraid to put his, and often many other peoples, money where his mouth is. Hector is not so bold. But AMD doesn't need that degree of boldness any more. What they need now is solid execution, something that was uneven under Sanders. Still, I do miss Jerry down on his knees in some back alley, the bones rattling in his fist as he tries to make his point...

Under Noyce, Intel was a nimble and innovative company. By the time of Grove, it had grown to more of a relentless force of nature. If something didn't measure up, it was cast aside. DRAM, the literal foundation of the company is one example. iAPX432 is another. It was under Grove that Intel started to play for all of the marbles though. Barrett bought into the death of the microprocessor. He tried to enter into other areas, with a notable lack of success, as the final drops were squeezed out of the microprocessor market. It is probably harder to get the last 5% of a market than the first 80, if for no other reason there are customers who won't buy from you unless you are the only supplier in existence. The reasons are many, most of which have some degree of religion attached to it. So the only way to have 100% of the market is to kill off all of the competition. And the only way to do that is to use means that bend or break laws and what is seen as fair business tactics. Which makes that last 5% grow to more like last 10%.

And when you focus so much of the company resources on the task, you generally wind up taking your eye off the ball. When you are up to your, umm, waist, in alligators, it is easy to forget your goal was to drain the swamp...
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gollem

01/21/06 6:45 PM

#70014 RE: bobs10 #69984

Bobs,

After 50+ years of playing the stock market this is all de-ja vu.

Wow, did you buy shares in the East India Company too?