Replies to post #1845 on Alphabet Inc (GOOG)

[SeriousMoney]

Google leads Net sector higher
By John Shinal, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:00 AM ET Dec. 19, 2005

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc. shares rose more than 2% to a new record Monday on optimism the Internet search leader will put a dent in the Web plans of rival Microsoft Corp. by signing a new partnership deal with Time Warner's AOL unit.

GOOG gained more than $10 to trade above $440 a share after AOL reportedly ended talks aimed at forging an advertising partnership with Microsoft in favor of expanding its existing relationship with Google. See full story.

Google's shares also entered the Nasdaq 100 index effective with the start of Monday's trading. See Market Snapshot.

YHOO, which competes with both Microsoft's MSN unit and Google in the market for paid-search advertising, also rose, gaining 51 cents to $42.83.

Most other Net stocks also gained ground, with both the Dow Jones Internet Index...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&gui...

[SeriousMoney]

GOOGLE gets tag-teamed?

Why Google will falter in 2006 - 8 predictions for tech, including why Yahoo's expansion of search will hurt Google.
December 19, 2005: 2:32 PM EST
David Kirkpatrick, FORTUNE senior editor



NEW YORK (FORTUNE) - Google will stumble in 2006.

I knew that would get your attention. Anything and everything Google is at the height of fashion right now. With a market capitalization of $127 billion, every move that the company makes--like the advertising deal an obsessed press says it will announce with Time Warner's (Research) AOL unit tomorrow--gets a lot of attention in the press.

But what goes up must come down--especially in technology, the most volatile industry the world has ever seen. Yes, I love Google, but my first prediction is that a year from now we won't think that the search company is the invincible behemoth that we do now.

One reason for this a new concept known as "community-powered search." Yahoo is forging an early lead over Google in this fast-evolving technology with its acquisition last week of del.icio.us for a rumored $35 million (the actual amount was undisclosed). Del.icio.us operates on principles similar to the popular MySpace. But whereas that social network site helps members find dates, form groups, and share music picks, del.icio.us helps members find hot information--websites that others have found useful. (News Corp. (Research) recently bought MySpace, for $580 million.)

Soon we will see a new form of results, like "What Others Liked," on all search engines. It's how Amazon tells its customers what others have bought, except that these search results involve information. In many cases, community-powered searches will let members find what they're looking for more quickly than they would on a purely computerized type of web search, which Google does so superbly. Yahoo was already introducing community-based searches with My Web 2.0. Of course, Google is surely working on its own alternatives.

Amazon's next ambition

My second prediction is that Amazon (Research) will re-emerge as one of the web's most powerful properties, and provide increased competition for Google (Research) in 2006. Amazon has done a nice job grabbing more and more commerce dollars, but it has bigger ambitions, and a savvy tech strategy.

For instance, this week it opened up the entire database of its Alexa search engine. Basically that means that any ace programmer can create his or her own search engine without having to own thousands of servers. Amazon will charge programmers for the use of its processors or storage, at reasonable rates, and all they have to bring is their own search software. Web pundit John Battelle has a good and effusive take on this development. Like I said in a recent column, "Google, Yahoo, and eBay: Next-Generation Conglomerates?", I see six companies all vying for the same big multi-industry opportunity. I call them GEMAYA--Google, eBay (Research), MSN, Amazon, Yahoo (Research), and AOL.

Telcos ramp up Internet access

My third prediction is that telcos will become more powerful Internet service providers. Mark Anderson, who writes the Strategic News Service newsletter and has a keen sense of communication trends, says cable companies, telcos, cell phone companies, and other ISPs are becoming generic "bit providers" that will compete solely on how cheaply they can deliver digital content--from phone calls to TV shows.

But telcos may have some advantages over the other players. Wolfgang Ziebart, CEO of Infineon (Research), recently told me that the German chipmaker will ramp up production of its so-called VDSL2 chip in early 2006. This chip can send data at the Holy Grail rate of 100 megabits per second over ordinary copper phone wire for distances of more than 600 feet.

That may not seem very far, but it represents a much greater capacity to transmit data than has previously been available on copper wires. This will enable phone companies to avoid stringing expensive optical fiber all the way to consumers' home computers. Instead, telcos can install optical fiber cables to hubs and then use traditional pre-existing copper phone lines to connect them to nearby households. Texas Instruments (Research) and other chipmakers are working on similar technology.

Apple to ring up cell phones

My fourth prediction is that Apple is likely to introduce a cell phone next year. I say this only because one of the consumer technology problems that most begs to be solved is the MP3/cell phone combination. The Motorola (Research) ROKR iPod phone that came out this year, using some of Apple's technology, hasn't captured consumers' imagination. We all hate it when the phone rings while we're listening to music. We need both capabilities in the same device so the music stops as soon as the phone rings, like it does on the ROKR. The genius of Steve Jobs and his ace designer Jonathan Ive can make this combination work in an Apple branded device.

Here are the rest of my tech predictions for 2006:

• TV viewing on cell phones will become routine--everywhere, that is, but in the U.S. It won't become possible here for most users until 2007.

• AMD (Research) keeps kicking Intel's (Research) butt. AMD CEO Hector Ruiz told me this week that the company will announce its next big fabrication plant by next summer, earlier than most had expected. Another giant state-of-the art factory (it only has one now) could help AMD better compete with Intel.

• Microsoft's big software launches next year—the Vista operating system and the next version of Office--won't generate much excitement. Remember a decade ago how people queued up at stores to get Windows 95? Those days are over. Even Microsoft (Research) acknowledges that software is shifting away from desktop applications towards web-based ones.

• Cisco (Research) may be the big-company investment of the year. This company's stock has flat-lined for 18 months, but every single trend that matters involves more bits flowing through more Internet-protocol pipes. As video online—the most data-intensive web application of all—becomes more pervasive, bit traffic will grow. Cisco remains so dominant in the business of building Internet-protocol infrastructure that its earnings growth could wow investors in 2006. Juniper (Research), another network equipment manufacturer, won't do badly either.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/19/technology/google_fortune/

[SeriousMoney]

Cramer's got something special for Santa this year!


.............................................

RealMoney Radio Recap: Rally Round Retail
By TheStreet.com Staff
12/20/2005 4:05 PM EST

With only five days left before Christmas, Jim Cramer talked Santa Claus Rally on the "RealMoney" radio show Tuesday.

Monday's terrible trading put a scare into a lot of hedge fund managers, who only get paid once a year, Cramer said, saying that they woke up to the possibility that their check could disappear in the next eight days of trading.

"So they began to actively bid on stocks below the market to preserve their paydays," he said.

And the perfect amount of confusion in the macroeconomic picture will allow hedge fund managers two weeks of robust holiday trading, Cramer said, creating the lift investors want to see, going into the end of the year.

"The only sector I am worried about is retail," Cramer said, because with just four shopping days before Christmas and a transit strike in New York City, stores with big exposure in that market like Urban Outfitters (URBN:Nasdaq) , Ann Taylor (ANN:NYSE) and the Gap (GPS:NYSE) might not make their numbers.

Cramer believes that the right amount of confusion means the economy doesn't get so hot that the Fed takes interest rates up, but doesn't cool so much that it pushes us into a recession.

Housing prices are up, but producer prices are declining. "That creates confusion, and that's what we want," he said.

"We want oil to drift, but not to plummet... .We want GM (GM:NYSE) to teeter but not to collapse." The murkiness will justify two weeks of buying, because there's no hard evidence that says not to put money into the market.

In the "danger zone" segment, Cramer told investors to dump Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq) . "If it didn't make acquisitions [like its recent PeopleSoft acquisition] , you'd see the true picture of how bad this company is doing and you wouldn't want it," Cramer said.

"It's a yesteryear tech stock. It's not coming back."
Cramer's Callers

Tuesday's calls and emails focused on Internet stocks, with the first listener asking about smart Wi-Fi and Wi-Max plays.

Cramer recommended Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq) , which he owns, because the company is a leader in CDMA (Code-Division Multiple Access), a very clear wireless connection.

He believes that Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) is a good Wi-Fi play, even though its primary business is in PC chips.

As for Wi-Max, Cramer called it a tech out in the future because unlike Wi-Fi and CDMA, its success depends on when the government decides to open up the airwaves necessary to use the technology.

"It will be a terrific, terrific technology. Alvarion (ALVR:Nasdaq) is the play there.

He added that while BellSouth (BLS:NYSE) and AT&T (T:NYSE) are interesting dividend plays, he doesn't see growth returning to those companies for some time.

There were plenty of Google (GOOG:Nasdaq) questions for Cramer who said he was pretty sure the search company was through with acquisitions and now focusing on developing its own products.

But because the stock -- trading Tuesday afternoon at roughly $428 -- is near his price target, Cramer said he couldn't be as aggressive on the company.

"I think Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) is a better buy here," Cramer said, adding that both companies are expensive, speculative stocks.

As for eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) , Cramer said the company is more of a Christmas play than investors might assume. "I think a lot of Christmas presents are being bought on eBay. The core business is very good," he said.

But away fro the core business, Cramer said that the Skype acquisition was too expensive. Taking the person-to-person phone unit into account, he said that the stock is a push.
The Fat in the Hat

Cramer was still wary about RedHat (RHAT:Nasdaq) , because it's more expensive than a company like Google when you compare its P/E ratio with its growth rate. He was even warier of Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq) .

"I've always regarded it as expensive," he said, adding that it's growing at 23% but sells at 80 times earnings. "That's even slower than RedHat," he said.

But Cramer was bullish on F5 Networks (FFIV:Nasdaq) , a traffic management company that makes software for Web companies.

"That's a growth industry and I like it," he said.

Cramer said that travel on the Web was too cutthroat a business to be a money-maker. He told listeners to steer clear of Priceline.com (PCLN:Nasdaq) , adding that even though travel on the Web has been explosive, nobody made any real money.

Niche Internet companies he recommended include The Knot (KNOT:Nasdaq) and Blue Nile (NILE:Nasdaq) .

As for the prospect of another Internet boom in 2006, Cramer said that it's possible but will never replicate the performance of the original dot-com explosion.

Cramer believes that projections for online advertising to get 6% to 7% of the market in 2006 are low, and that the figure will come in closer to 10%. Even though he said the Web was the place to look for money, he cautioned listeners, saying that he wants things to come down before he puts more money into the sector.

For investors paying attention to the January effect, next month might be the time to bargain-hunt. Cramer explained that people are encouraged to take tax-motivated losses in December, which drives down already weak stocks.

Then in January, the selling lets up and the stocks bounce back.

Cramer said that Fortune Brands (FO:NYSE) was a buy below $75. The stock traded near $78 Tuesday.

Finally, Cramer recommended Shanda (SNDA:Nasdaq) , a Chinese Internet stock with a limited downside because of the prevalence of online gaming on the mainland.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/realmoneyradiowrap/10258391.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&....

[SeriousMoney]

Wanna feel really, really dumb?



Google Labs Aptitude Test (GLAT)... http://ifindkarma.typepad.com/relax/2004/09/google_labs_apt.html

Complete GLAT Solutions... http://elliottback.com/wp/archives/2005/01/20/complete-glat-solutions/

[SeriousMoney]

Google team sets sights on big screen
Entertainment-savvy co-founders invest in Stanford friend's independent film, shot in S.F.
Verne Kopytoff, Chronicle Staff Writer
Thursday, December 29, 2005

After becoming Internet moguls, Google Inc. co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page are dipping their toes into Hollywood.

The pair are executive producers of a low-budget, independent film to be released next year, "Broken Arrows," written and directed by a friend of theirs, Reid Gershbein.

Google's founders tapped into their vast personal fortunes, estimated at $16 billion each, to fund about half the film's budget. Production cost just under $1 million, according to Gershbein.

A spokeswoman for Google confirmed the role of her company's founders in the film but declined to discuss any other details.

The investment by Google's founders may give insight into how they plan to use their deep pockets, a topic they have never discussed publicly. Although relatively thrifty, they have splurged on occasion, such as their film investment and buying a Boeing 767 jet to help ferry themselves and employees around the globe.

The friendship between Google's founders and Gershbein dates to the late 1990s, when all of them were doctoral students in computer science at Stanford University. They've kept in close touch since then, even as they pursued wildly different careers.

For Gershbein, the film is his first live-action feature. His day job is in computer graphics at DreamWorks Animation, after a stint at Pixar Animation Studios.

Of course, Brin and Page lead the most popular search engine. As co-presidents, they help oversee a staff of nearly 5,000.

Gershbein said he had approached Brin about the idea for the film about a year ago to ask if they knew anyone who could help with funding. He quickly offered some of his own money.

A few months later, at a fundraising party for the film, Page also offered to invest, he said.

"I can't say how lucky I am," Gershbein said. "They were extremely generous."

The movie follows the journey of Reese, who loses his pregnant wife in a terrorist explosion. From then on, the story enters a more magical realm.

Distraught, Reese takes a job as a hit man. But it doesn't relieve his pain as was promised. Ultimately, the audience discovers that Reese's violence isn't what it appears at all. Prepare for a major plot twist.

To hear Gershbein describe it, the movie is about love, faith and destiny. A short trailer, at http://www.brokenarrowsthemovie.com/
suggests a moody art film with scenes of a couple embracing on a beach, a woman lying on the ground threatening someone with a pistol, and a priest offering advice.

Shooting took place this year in such San Francisco locations as the Presidio, Zebulon Cafe in the South of Market neighborhood, and Adobe Books in the Mission. Just recently, Gershbein finished a rough cut and showed it to some of his cast and crew.

Though Google's founders routinely hobnob with Hollywood stars such as Gwyneth Paltrow (she visited Google's headquarters with husband Chris Martin, the singer for rock band Coldplay) and Robin Williams (he visited too), none appears in the film. Instead, the cast is made up of lesser-known actors Peter Quartaroli and Lori Petty in the lead roles.

Brin and Page were joined as executive producers of "Broken Arrows" by another college friend, Martin Roscheisen, chief executive of Nanosolar, a solar panel manufacturer in Palo Alto. The two Google founders recently invested in Nanosolar.

Films, particularly science fiction, have been a popular diversion at Google for years. On occasion, the company rents a cinema for a day near its Mountain View headquarters so employees can watch free blockbusters such as "The Matrix Reloaded" and "Lord of the Rings."

Brin's busy schedule didn't allow him to visit the set, Gershbein said. But Page showed up for an hour or so during a shoot at Dolce, a club in North Beach, he said.

Despite his lofty executive producer title, Page got little of the comforts bestowed on most Hollywood executives who visit a film set. "We had no big producer chair," Gershbein said.

Google's founders haven't offered much advice about the film, he added. Nor will there be any references to Google in the movie or any filming at Google's offices.

Gershbein's previous work includes research and development for the animated DreamWorks Animation films "Madagascar" and "Shrek 2." He worked as a technology director in lighting on "Toy Story 2" as well as technology director in lighting and as software engineer for "A Bug's Life."

In funding a film, Google's founders join an exclusive club of technology executives who have crossed over from the computer screen to the big screen. For example, Jeffrey Skoll, eBay's former president, was executive producer of a recent string of critically acclaimed films including "Syriana," and "Good Night, and Good Luck," both starring George Clooney, as well as "North Country" with Charlize Theron.

Terry Semel, chief executive of Yahoo, took a reverse course. He was co-head of Warner Bros. before joining the Sunnyvale Web portal.

Gershbein's job now is to finish a final cut of "Broken Arrows" and get the movie screened at some festivals, perhaps as early as next fall. Movie studio executives, he hopes, will like what they see and offer to distribute the film either in theaters or on DVD.

If necessary, Gershbein said, he would be willing to distribute the film online. Google recently created a free video streaming service that may be a good fit.

Eventually, Google may allow owners of video rights to charge users for individual downloads. But Gershbein said he hadn't discussed the possibility with anyone at Google.

In any case, Gershbein emphasized that the goal was to at least break even. Investors will get the lion's share of the profits, if there are any.

Nevertheless, he doesn't believe that Google's founders hope to strike it rich. "I see them as doing this to be supportive of the arts, not as way to make money," he said.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/12/29/MNGPRGEIPU1.DTL