Replies to post #12891 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[laranger]

You said, "If the $1.9m increase in revenue came from just one licensee, then it gets rather unusual."

However, the release states that the "late" revenue came from "the recognition of HIGHER royalties from certain licensees..."

"Licensees" obviously means more than one.

But saying "HIGHER royalties" complicates what should otherwise be a straight-forward news release.

Why didn't they just say "ROYALTIES", since there is no mention of receiving "revised" reports?

Once again, I expect someone will call KOP Monday, and get the facts.

[ellismd]

After it's all said and done I bet there is another 50 or 60M to be collected on an annualize basis from the rest of the infringers. I think the recurring annual revenue will probably be closer to 300 to 320M a year. You consider also, that IDCC will receive a fat check for royalties from NOK, Samsung, and I am sure there are a few others that will need to pay. IDCC could easily end up with 500 to 700M in the back by the end of the year. Also in my quick estimates of numbers I didn't include any Mot 2G or 3G revenue. We know Mot will not get a way with not paying IDCC 3G royalties, which I think could easily range from 60M and 70M. Also, I feel Mot will have to pay some 2G penalties, settlement, or what ever you would like to call it after ERICY is settled. I think many of the patents in question are different from what was litigated in the IDCC vs Mot trial. IDCC loss a lot of leverage with MOT because of the travesty, however I think they will gain some of the leverage back after ERICY settles.

[infinite_q]

rmarchma, fantastic post!

So, just based on what we know today, and being conservative on all counts, we should be able to achieve around $250m a year in earnings (average) over the next few years. This would be about $4 a share earnings after taxes. Put a P/E of 20 on it and you are at $80 a share. All we need to do is settle with ERICY and establish a standard, industry rate for our IPR.

I think your numbers are low, since I expect about 1-1.5% royalty rates on 2G, WCDMA FDD, and CDMA2000. TDD will bring in a higher rate for us, so WTDD and TD-SCDMA rollouts could increase this. Then you've got chip revenues from IFX or other sources to consider. Oh, and don't forget folks like IP Wireless which could vastly increase the total available market for our IPR.

Pretty encouraging, IMO.

[linedrivehitter]

rmarchma that was a KNOCKOUT post