A good analogy, I know what you mean sometimes am puzzled at reactions to certain economic reports and market reactions ie: CPI, PPI, GDP, ISM, FOMC meetings, etc. May be bullish yet market might sell off and vice versa.
I havnt found a way TA wise to "predict" such short term waves but will attempt to jump on the side its headed for that moment. "Headfakes" may often present themselves as well.
For me market bias is day by day, may be sideways one day, bullish the next, bearish on another. I say this because I am ultra short term.
Similar situations w/ earnings reports, may get a very nice report that produces an initial upswing only to turn into a mass sell-off. So yes, TA, price patterns, and the tape will yield insight to future movement.
In general always seems "market bias" is more easily persuaded to the bearish side, then again usally gets to a point where short covering will bounce it back up.
Anyway, yes a fascinating topic I am baffled by mostly so choose to stick w/ the ultra short term direction with the longer term bias in the back of my mind as a guide.
But thank you for the time and post (log)
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