Replies to post #4107 on Intel Corp (INTC)

[wbmw]

Smooth, this conversion represents Intel's fifth 300mm fab. 300mm is the strategic direction Intel has been moving towards for the past couple years. Now it seems that they are moving all their production over to it very quickly. By 90nm, 100% of wafers will be 300mm, so Intel needs as much 300mm capacity as they currently have with 200mm capacity.

In the press release, they said that 5 300mm fabs is about the equivalent of 10 of their 200mm fabs. This is probably true. However, I wonder what they will do with all their 200mm facilities once things transfer over.

By my count, Intel has the following 300mm fabs: D1C and 11X currently in 130nm HVM, D1D and 24 coming online over the next couple years, and 12 in late 2005.

As for 200mm wafer plants, they still have the following: Fabs 8, 10/14, 11, 15, 17, 18, 20, 22, and 23. I read in The Oregonian that Fab15 will become a wafer sort facility and decommission itself as a fab, but that still leaves eight full sized 200mm fabs that will run out of production after 130nm. Either Intel intends to continue production in the future on a lot of obsolete processes, or they will have to transition their manufacturing over to 300mm over the next few years. I have a feeling it's the latter (quite possibly a smart move from a competitive cost perspective).

[Elmer Phud]

smoothh20

Things must be looking pretty good at Corporate

I am pretty amazed by Intel's plans. 5 300mm fabs by 2005. With the reported small die size for Prescott, it is likely that Intel could meet the total demand with just 2-3 300mm fabs. Intel is clearly planning on an enormous demand in other areas. The chipset business, that accounts for over 150 millions units per year won't use those fabs for another generation or so. Flash won't be in those fabs so just what is going to use 2-3 additional 300mm fabs? Even still Intel will have a number of other 200mm fabs that are still pretty much state of the art. F10/14 in Ireland, F18 in Israel, F22 in Arizona, F11 in New Mexico, F20 in Oregon, F17 in Hudson, D2 in Santa Clara. Add a Flash fab or 2 and you still have a hell of a lot of capacity without those 5 300mm fabs. Intel has something in mind that isn't clear to the rest of us.

EP