Replies to post #126407 on Biotech Values

[masterlongevity]

"The most significant value driver, however, is anti- VEGF drug Eylea following positive FDA panel recommendation for approval and a potential $3.5B opportunity in eye disease. Expert feedback suggests that superior efficacy and less frequent dosing should position Eylea favorably to $4B brand Lucentis, and we expect HARBOR and CATT two- year data to confirm a differentiated profile."



I think he's smoking crack

[DewDiligence]

We are initiating coverage of Biogen Idec (BIIB) with an UNDERPERFORM rating and a $74 price target. We believe commercial expectations for Biogen Idec’s multiple sclerosis (MS) franchise, in particular for BG-12, have been overestimated and that risk to upcoming CONFIRM data has been underestimated. With focus on CONFIRM, we expect comparator Copaxone to perform better than expected, based on prior experience in BEYOND and REGARD…

The BMO analyst is merely saying that investors’ expectations for BG-12 got too high based on the data from one clinical trial (DEFINE) in which the comparator was placebo. Unless the outcome of the CONFIRM study is truly awful for Copaxone, I don’t expect the trial to have much commercial impact on Copaxone for the reason mentioned in #msg-62332894.

[DewDiligence]

GHDX will present Oncotype DX data in DCIS at SABCS tomorrow:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Genomic-Health-Announces-prnews-2657920475.html?x=0

A reliable test to distinguish high-risk DCIS from low-risk DCIS would have a lot of value, IMO. However, I haven’t studied this test closely enough to have a strong opinion on whether it will succeed in this setting. Comments?