Ams13sag:I don't think there will be a settlement with NOK prior to the arb award.
I think that despite some speculation here, there hasn't been much indication of it, and there have been denials (in the Del case affidavit, for example).
I do think that a BIG arb award creates an opportunity for a settlement though. I'm not saying it WILL happen, just that it might.
When IDCC gets news of the award, I do believe they will announce it right away. IDCC NEEDS a big win almost as much as they need the several hundred million dollars. They need it as a shot across the bow of the industry. They need it to force Samsung to pay up. They need it to get other 2 and 2.5 infringers to pay. They need it to get credibility and clout which will be money in the bank for them--they can turn their credibility and clout into licenses and revenues and development deals. Credibility and clout is the catalyst they need to turn their IP into gold.
So here's a possible scenario. IDCC gets a big award--a HUGE award. NOK has limited grounds and avenues for appeal and further delay--but they do have some. So settlement talks begin with satisfying the judgment. But there are other issues on the table. IDCC can offer a discount, let's say 10% off the award--in exchange for full payment of the balance--perhaps IDCC offers to let NOK structure the payments over time--IDCC may be able to manage tax liabilities with such a structure. However, IDCC demands 3G licenses. And up front payments. And some method of ensuring NOK pays them for 3G without having to resort to litigation to collect--a contract which includes penalties, liquidated damages clauses, some self enforcing mechanisms that make litigation not worth it for NOK as a way to avoid their obligations--again. IDCC needs to be less than fully trusting of these backstabbing fins.
But supposedly 3G development work along with NOK has proceeded all this time. IDCC and NOK may find a win win scenario in some sort of cooperative business relationship for 3G--a joint venture beyond the development deal. And NOK and IDCC continue to work together to develop future generations of technology.
Who knows?
I agree that we're not likely at all to see a settlement prior to the arb award--events on the ground have made that clear--since neither side knows when the decision will come down, and they clearly hadn't settled prior to 5/31 there's no reason to believe they're even talking now, and remember, the notion of such talks has been denied too.
I always doubted that the departure of HG and R.I.P had anything to do with settlement talks with NOK--the most UNLIKELY thing was that IDCC would capitulate and fire their CEO and COO as a term of settlement negotitations or even as a deal sweetener. Absurd notion--a notion that if true would mean that IDCC is so weak that they'd let an adversary dictate personnel decisions. Ridiculous.
I also think that IDCC believes their position in the arb is strong and thus there is little reason for them to be so desperate for a settlement that they'd agree to such a thing. Further, I think that IDCC realizes that they NEED a win to establish their credibility and clout, and to help avoid constant litigation with everyone in the future. They need a "signature win" and this is it for them. They're dealing from a position of strength not weakness.
Anyway, rather than continue on, I'll just end by saying this is all JMHO and good luck to us all!
Regards
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