Replies to post #25698 on Value Microcaps Junior Miners

[Bobwins]

note to self.......

Next time I find a "safe" producer who says they are going to fix their depleting mine situation by starting two mines simultaneously in two different countries, be skeptical.

Orvana should become a low cost diversified producer in 6 to 9 months. They will have enviable cash costs because of byproduct credits for base metals and silver in their Spanish operations and become a combined producer of 130,000 oz of gold/yr.

BUT they have stumbled at both locations and need more capital to get past the startup blues. They also have to post an unexpected bond with the Spanish government. The financing news is dropping the stock 13.9% today to C$2.04.

I am holding because they should come out of this as a bargain producer but there will be more dilution and they are going to be a show me stock. They will have to produce reliable results for several qtrs before they win back the trust with institutions and individual investors.

There is still some risk operationally. The Spanish mine was operated for many years so it's a little surprising but the delay is slight and manageable. The UMZ mine startup has been longer and more troublesome. The lack of sulfuric acid was the initial problem but it has taken over 6 months to fix things. UMZ was supposed to be in full production and help pay for Spain.

I still think ORV.to will recover once revs and cashflow start to match up to forecasts. They expect first revs from Spain in August.

Bobwins