Replies to post #237325 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[Know-Nuttin]

Best post I've read in years...

[dbernet]

Great post,

I have little doubt that that is where we are going. I think because all the "path finding" for AKPO has been done, the process for block one and two, three and four will proceed more quickly than AKPO.

What will move our stock price is public clarity of the path forward. When it becomes clear to investors that Total will proceed with development of block one we will get increased interest, and when deals for the rest of the blocks are public we will soar.

As always the time line is the issue. Not the time line to production so much as the time line to a publicly known path to production. Then all of the time value of money calculations can discount back to the present and give us time adjusted production value.

The picture could be clearer this month (unlikely?) or it could take years.

And then there is the EEZ.

We could languish for years or be at a buck plus in a few months. Lots and lots of oil juniors moving right now, but it is hard to walk away from this one.

Oh my,

db

[seek the light]

vine.."Total doesn't own any of block 2, 3 & 4. Lots of deals to work out." There is a very fast way for Total to own pieces of 2,3, and 4. And everyone keeps talking about Offor getting his price. Only Offor knows what that figure is , and i think he will weigh the benefits of what that amount can earn for him in his own companies versus waiting years to see the final results of further drilling. Also the argument that the market will apply a multiple to the price based of assets or earnings; so Offor would be better off to hold his shares, is not absolute in this case. The reason is because it is tarnished goods and can only overcome that reputation by having revenue and earnings, and until then it will sell in the market for it's present worth plus a modest premium for upside by further drilling. In other words, the market will only value the company for about the same amount Offor can get for now if the drilling results are made public. Mr. market will not give much for the yet to be drilled prospects. He can get more than the what market will value the company if the results are not divulged, but are simply used to arrive at a fairness opinion by say Netherland Sewell or Woods Mckenzie.He knows this and will act accordingly.


Besides i believe they already have a pretty good handle on what is there, and can arrive at a fair value acceptable to all parties without a lot more drilling. And there is that carry to production that gives an incentive to SNP to take ERHC out or let a partner take it out. All of this is Totally my opinion. After all that is all we really have on this board ...Opinions...

edited

[petemantx]

Won't it be wonderful when we finally find out if we are sitting on an AKPO/ENGINA type field? I think that will be the day I finally relax and know it is just a matter of time for all good things to come to pass with this investment; 'til then, sitting with fingers crossed. Still pretty confident with our chances.

[TOB]

So, test wells in 2000, four years of analysis, production wells drilled nine years after the first test wells, and it is a commercial success!

I wonder if the minority shareholders were screaming that the CEO was an incompetent failure and criminal cover-up during that period?


Ps. Great post, thank you. It appears this is a game of patience.