Quite right, old chap. Except the whole basis of your post is under the assumption that the buy out is not real. In fact, that is exactly what you said. However you have no proof of this. I repeat, YOU HAVE NO PROOF! Therefore, your neat little analysis on risk versus reward is null and void. The reward IS out there!
I can understand your thinking, but wouldn't they have pull the plug on this deal if they have already made there money? They have sold 9B shares from the beginning of March