ProfitAce, OSIP!Strong Tarceva start pressures Astra's drug Iressa
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Tarceva, a new competitor in the
lung cancer market to AstraZeneca Plc's <AZN.L> drug Iressa, has
got off to a strong start in the United States since its
approval last month, industry analysts said on Wednesday.
The product from Roche <ROG.VX>, Genentech <DNA.N> and OSI
<OSIP.O> accounted for 22 percent of U.S. new prescriptions in
the drug class after just two weeks on the market, according to
prescription-monitoring figures cited by brokers.
The rapid uptake highlights the importance of a clinical
trial, due to report this month, which AstraZeneca hopes will
prove Iressa lets patients live longer.
A lack of survival data means Iressa is currently at a
disadvantage to Tarceva, which has already been shown to prolong
life.
Industry analysts, including those at Morgan Stanley and SG
Cowen, expect a positive result from the 1,700-study Iressa
study but probably not a meaningful difference to the 42.5
percent increase in survival seen with Tarceva.
A spokesman for AstraZeneca, Europe's third-largest
drugmaker, declined to comment on the latest prescription data
but said the company remained confident about Iressa's
prospects.
Both Iressa and Tarceva are pills belonging to a new class
of drugs that block the epidermal growth factor signal which
promotes tumour-cell growth. They offer a less toxic alternative
to chemotherapy but only work in some patients.
SG Cowen currently expects both drugs to generate around
$650 million in annual sales by 2008. But if Iressa keeps 70
percent of the market, its sales could be $900 million, lifting
AstraZeneca's 2004-08 earnings growth to 14 from 13 percent.
Leaving Tarceva to dominate, meanwhile, could reduce 2008
sales to $200 million or less and cut EPS growth to close to 11
percent, SG Cowen said.
AstraZeneca badly needs some good product news after U.S.
regulators rejected its anticoagluant pill Exanta in October and
a Food and Drug Administration official last month questioned
the safety of its cholesterol fighter Crestor.
(C) Reuters 2004.