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OldAIMGuy

07/30/02 9:16 AM

#4426 RE: ergo sum #4418

Hi ES, For me it was comforting to see the "smoothed" IW data close to the Low Risk area after only three weeks of the "raw" data being there. This rapid decline does a pretty good job of measuring investor despondency.

The minus 10 IW Oscillator reading shows that through last Friday there really hadn't been any change in the level of gloom. The NYSE and NASDAQ both posted incredible New High/New Low ratios for the last 52 weeks. Over 900 new lows on the NASDAQ and over 1100 on the NYSE! The only tea leaf I can see that might have given a clue to a shift was the Advance/Decline ratios of the two exhanges. They weren't as extreme as one might have guessed with so many new lows and so few new highs. Maybe it was indicating that the drops were now smaller than in previous weeks.

Best regards, Tom