I'd like to suggest that the timing of the current bear activity will differ from earlier events due to the effect of personal computers and the internet. In '74 (as an example), and even as recently as '90 (which tweaked my toes), most of your famous "men in the street" got their stock quotes from the newspaper. This tended to concentrate the placement of laymen's orders in the morning, and tended to result in order imbalances when severe anxiety arose. Those fear-generated sales did not tend to be followed by buy orders in quick succession.
Today, many stock market groupies (including, of course, folks like me) believe themselves to be sophisticated investors. They know all about how fear works and consider themselves immune to its effects. Furthermore, when they think they spot the signs of panic, they believe they have the wit and wisdom to step in at just the right moment, and buy. That slows down the process.
Gradually, their confidence wavers. Not, perhaps, when they read the paper, but when they see this or that indicator dip below what they believe to be a fail-safe point ... whether at 9:52 am or 2:12 pm. Thus, the dynamics are different.
For my part, I don't know where the bottom is, but I'm sure I'll be able to spot it ... if I keep looking backwards.
Fred
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