**My Reasoning to Buy FOGC Now!!**
1. Minimal debt acquired in the acquisition (only 5% gross royalty for existing wells and 2.5% for new wells to Carmanah). Still waiting for the S-1 filing for actual details.
2. 11% to Pertamania leaves FOGC 84% of gross revenue until over $160mil in prior expenses recovered.
3. IMHO Production at Camar may exceed 4000 BOPD once all 8 wells are online and before any rework/multilateral drilling. Also, several additional wells are drilled but not completed.
Oil at $28 = $28x30daysx4000BOPD= $3,360,000 gross
3,360,000x.84= $2,822,400 gross to FOGC monthly
Previous conversations with management (not in PR's) estimated (roughly) monthly expenses/costs at 400K.
(2,822,400-400,000)=2,422,400x12mo=$29,068,800 yearly
Say $1mil for admin and $1mil in payments for tanker (guessing??) leaves $27,068,800 net income or
27,068,800/17,300,000 (all warrants incl.)= $1.56 per ss
5000 BOPD would add about (1000x28x30x12)x.84= $10,080,000
or an additional .58 a ss or total of $2.14 annually.
Use your own pe ratio and make your own decision. Just remember, that doesn't even include possible multilateral drilling for increased production, new wells on PROVEN property(some already drilled), or gas sales/joint ventures. :~))
PROUD MEMBER FORTUNE LONGS INVESTMENT GROUP