Replies to post #82843 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Two-timer]

Two to 2bit: my "guru" thinks the rally will take a pause now. How deep a pause, who knows? But it's going nowhere fast, wouldn't you agree? Two

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As the evidence builds, we have come to the conclusion that stocks are topping now, that this top is most likely wave A-up (our alternate labeling), of an A-up, B-down, C-up rally leg for wave (B), a countertrend move for the primary trend, correcting the huge plunge from October 2007 through March 6th, 2009, which was wave (A) down. The problem with wave b's is that we cannot be certain whether they will be deep or shallow until they get into the move, and that wave b's often form sideways triangles. It would not surprise us if wave B-down runs from now until the late July phi mate turn date, with wave C-up running into the late summer/early autumn. So far, the rally from March 6th has retraced 2,408 points, or 31.2 percent of the plunge from the October 2007 top to the March 6th, 2009 bottom in the Industrials. It is less than an ideal Fibonacci 38.2 percent retrace, suggesting more upside will eventually follow, however the large recovery percent at this point suggests this is as good a place as any for stocks to top. Time-wise, the rally has not consumed a Fibonacci ratio of time compared to the time the wave (A) drop took, so this adds to our belief that wave (B) up is not topping now, that just a component wave of (B) up is topping now. The rally from March 6th has been 3 months versus the 17 month decline that preceded it, or 17.5 percent of the time. If (B) up takes 38.2 percent of the time (A) down did, we are talking about a conclusion to (B) up around the autumn equinox, the third week of September, 2009. That happens to be when the crash of 2008 started.