micro,
There is a strong argument to be made that the FED will have to take the Fed Funds Rate below 1% in order to get us out of this housing/credit/liquidity mess. Yeah, yeah, I see the inflation numbers, but the souring economy may demand more FED action (read: interest rate stimulus).
I've read articles that say the effective umemployment rate is over 14%. Many economists are predicting negative growth in the 4th and 1st quarters. (Wow, we could then really call it a "recession.")
All of this portends a weaker dollar going forward. So it's not clear that #2 on your list is over with yet.
Bladerunner