Replies to post #5032 on Dendreon Corp fka DNDNQ

[io_io]

<<<"using the HR of subgroups at an interim look is a good way to determine the outcome at a final look">>>


I would not say "to determine" - I would say "to guesstimate".

But in any case, for the interim look, almost certainly the HR of subgroups will not be obtained or analyzed.

In fact it is fairly certain that, if the Provenge trial neither succeeds or fails at the interim look, DNDN shareholders will not be told the interim look HR. I cannot think of any pivotal trial where the interim results were announced.

It is also possible that DNDN management will just be told that the trial continues, without learning any data. That's what a DSMB is for.


By the way, it's going to be a very long wait, and the outcome of the interim look is uncertain to say the least. Given that 9901 and 9902a were so different, and the bar is high for an interim look, I would look to the outcome with a very skeptical eye - or not look at all. I know that can be difficult, but at least for the interim look there is no clear evidence to expect a spectacular outcome.

It's not normal investing, it's biotech, so take good care.

It's a pity about the HDPC trial (P-11) because the interim results are fairly persuasive.