Replies to post #120 on CARRIER ACCESS (CACS)

[Kirk]

We just had a retrace from $18 to 12.xx
What is a fib number for a retrace?

11.27 would be a 38.2% retrace from $0.38

My guess is a retrace would be measured from some other level...

Probably good support at $12.25 if that is where institutions feel it is worth buying millions of shares...

Longer term, higher.

Short term buy or sell I have in my newsletter before I post here for obvious reasons.

[Kirk]

KVHI just announced a larger offering... at a price well above CACS

KVHI vs CACS
Interesting comparison between the companies
Revenue per share... room to grow for CACS...
I don't think they have the forward PE correct for CACS since 2005 earnings are estimated to be 50¢
At $14, this is a mere PEG PE of 28 and a PEG of well under unity.

7:57AM KVH Industries prices 2.75 mln share offering at $18.75 (KVHI) 19.13:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=cacs+kvhi

CACS:
Market Cap (intraday): 358.83M
Enterprise Value (10-Feb-04)©ø: 312.13M
Trailing P/E (ttm): 157.05
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-05)¡ù: 0.00
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¡ù: 2.60
Price/Sales (ttm): 5.57
Price/Book (mrq): 3.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)©ø: 4.99
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 62.56M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 2.404


KVHI
Market Cap (intraday): 230.62M
Enterprise Value (10-Feb-04)©ø: 215.76M
Trailing P/E (ttm): 487.56
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-04)¡ù: 0.00
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¡ù: N/A
Price/Sales (ttm): 4.09
Price/Book (mrq): 8.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)©ø: 4.00
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 53.99M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 4.638

[Kirk]

11:26AM Carrier Access selected by Cingular for network expansion (CACS) 11.80 +0.57: Co announces that Cingular Wireless has expanded CACS's contract for cell site backhaul products to support Cingular's network expansion. In the multi-year contract, Cingular will deploy CACS's MASTERseries Cell Site Access Gateway to meet its current requirements for efficient nxT1 cell site to mobile switch center transport, while simultaneously preparing its network for future packet-based transport and advanced protocol processing. Deployments will begin immediately.

[Kirk]

Offering raised $78.5M and is completed.

The 10K released today says the offering was completed in Feb and raised $78.5M

($78.5M/$12.25 = 6.28M shares)
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/040330/cacs10-k.html

I don't recall reading anywhere that the offering was completed before today.

Other points I got from the 10K
->GMs might go up in 2004
->No income taxes will be paid in 2004 due to losses carried forward (good news for EPS)
->Working off more inventory
->Interest income from cash while they decide what to do with it.

I think this should be taken as good news. I'm interested in what else in the 10K seems material to others.

The stock seemed to shoot up and that alerted me to check to see if news of a completed offering was made... Sure enough!

[Kirk]

Coverage initiated on Carrier Access by Kaufman Bros
Wed 8:40am - Briefing.com

26-May-04 Kaufman Bros Initiated Buy

Current Price $10.36

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=CACS

[Kirk]

The Flag breakout continues.

Today we broke the trend of lower highs as we now have a higher high at $14.64 as of now...



I wonder if we are getting a short squeeze as some might have sold or even shorted when the 50 crossed the 200 simple moving average.

Too bad they didn't think to use the Exponential moving average.... they both turned up last month signaling a potential trend change ahead....



This correction, although painful, has been great as it has allowed me to trade a bit to get more total shares AND take some cash out.

[Kirk]

Carrier Access Presenting at Kaufman Bros. 7th Annual CMT Conference, Sept. 8, 2004

The dump may be complete so now they can start telling their story again with the secondary shares shaken out of weak hands... (somehow some fell into my hands... knock on wood, but I have gains on some of them already too. )


Carrier Access Presenting at Kaufman Bros. 7th Annual CMT Conference, Sept. 8, 2004

BOULDER, COLORADO - August 31, 2004 -

What:
Carrier Access will present at the Kaufman Bros.’ 7th Annual Communications, Media & Technology Conference. Company executives will provide attendees with an overview of the company and its three target markets within the broadband access industry: wireless, IP business services and fiber access.

Who:
Carrier Access (NASDAQ: CACS), a leading provider of broadband access communications technologies
Presenters: Roger Koenig, president, CEO and chairman of the board;
Tim Anderson, CFO

When:
Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2004, at 2:25 p.m. EDT / 12:25 p.m. MDT

Where:
The W New York Hotel, 541 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY
About Carrier Access Corporation

Carrier Access (NASDAQ: CACS) provides next-generation wireline and wireless broadband access technologies that optimize communications services for service providers, enterprises and government agencies. Carrier Access products are designed to enable customers to consolidate and upgrade access capacity, and implement converged IP services while lowering costs and accelerating service revenue. For more information, visit www.carrieraccess.com.

[Kirk]

Intersting chart with the 50 and 200 DMAs coming together.