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UpNDown

01/28/04 1:22 PM

#24594 RE: HailMary #24582

HailMary, on stock prospects

I think things are looking too good short term to keep this stock under $20 for much longer.

AMD is an amazing stock in that the information on which it will move is usually available well before the move starts. Let me say that another way: the stock price changes seem to significantly lag the news.

Thus, we can see good news staring us in the face for the next month: bad Prescott reviews, Sun announcement of Opteron systems, HP announcement of Opteron systems, IBM announcement of workstations, many mobile announcements. And yet, this good news does not seem to be priced in, at least to my eyes. To trade in AMD you really need patience.

BTW, over the medium term, we also have the Red Storm commissioning. At 10,368 Opteron chips to start, this will be a major news item, especially if Sandia picks up the option to double the size and return the supercomputer crown to the US. Red Storm is supposed to be fully operational by August.