"Novavax would like to clarify that while it has anticipated the COVID-19 vaccination market in the U.S. will be similar to last year, it has neither updated nor reaffirmed its full year 2024 financial guidance issued on August 8, 2024."
A covid vaccine update is likely to be dependent on Sanofi.
"On May 10, 2024, as part of its commitment to developing a diverse portfolio of best-in-class vaccines, Sanofi announced that it had entered into a co-exclusive licensing agreement with Novavax, a biotechnology company headquartered in Maryland, US. The terms of the agreement include (i) a co-exclusive license to co-commercialize Novavax’s current stand-alone adjuvanted COVID-19 vaccine worldwide (except in countries with existing Advance Purchase Agreements and in India, Japan, and South Korea, where Novavax has existing partnership agreements); (ii) a sole license to Novavax’s adjuvanted COVID-19 vaccine for use in combination with Sanofi’s flu vaccines; and (iii) a non-exclusive license to use the Matrix-M adjuvant in vaccine products. In addition, Sanofi took a minority (<5%) equity investment in Novavax."
I recall that Sanofi's 'Play to Win' strategy incorporates 20+ acquisitions scheduled to start in Q4, and I think we will enter into a joint merger with Sanofi/Novavax as Sanofi continues to execute their strategy.
In any event, it makes it difficult at this time for Novavax to provide clear guidance for the analysts, in terms of an update. While the US covid market may be stable, if Sanofi uses the lenz-enhanced Novavax vaccine in their CIC vaccine, as they intend to do, the Novavax covid and CIC's vaccines could show a sharp increase in demand.
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