Wall Street is pretty good with channel checks, so I think you could be right about Q1. Almost I would rather have that be the explanation for the low SP rather than something more fundamental.
However I don't see insolvency as a major risk given the increasing success of their filler line. With the $3billion valuation I can understand (but don't agree with) the profligate spending... obvious to anyone that has been at functions in their Nashville HQ... Now they will have to seriously cut down on expenses, and the filler revenues should keep them alive even if Daxi takes a long time. What is your insolvency scenario?