Since the HBM patents were for only 11 months, the amount owed for a year would have been around $140mil. If Micron were producing the same as Samsung, add another $140Mil. And since HYNIX controls about 70% of the HBM market, their royalties to NLST should be about $653 Mil.
The current HBM market would be worth $933Bil to NLST and is predicted to quadruple from 2020 to 2026. If it doubles from 2022 levels, we are looking at royalties of near $2 Bil when Hynix comes off license.
Since DDR5 patents were for 16 months, the amount per year would have been $110 Mil. If Samsung has 50% market share while Hynix and Micro share the other 50%, the current DDR5 royalty for Netlist should be about $220 Mil. When DDR5 is nearly 100% of the market in 2026, royalties would then be around $1 Bil.
With the other NLST patents, we could easily be at $3.5 Bil in royalties which is half QCOM’s patent royalty and 1/4 of their profit.
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