While I can't chart the various paths in EW i can use common sense and odds in my favor. We NEVER reversed inflation this quickly or easily. in other words the January spike was not a fluke and inflation will not only linger but get stranger in weeks and months from now. A Fed Funds over 6% is a guarantee for disaster. I have been stating for a while that 2023 will go down as the worse year in a century. The goldilocks scenario has been turned on it's head.
I was right with the pandemic and last year with the so called transitory inflation. I am as confident going forward as i was in those two incidences. Whether charts agree with me or not.
The charts? Where were they when we had a pandemic? Common sense won out. Last year everyone was calling the inflation spike a short transitory event. The weak earnings for so many quarters and the expectation that decent earnings ONLY occur in 9 months from now is outrageous. These are NOT MY assumptions but the streets. Soft landing? Bonds and inverted curve has already spoken. th dollar? it can't drop to save this economy. China? they are just opening up their own economy. Human nature is the same wherever you go and they will cause a HUGE spike in commodities.
We are entering the perfect storm this year. 3200 on SPX is the first support zone this year and likely all the way to 2500.
Just common sense and a very long period of hope and eventually that will lead to capitulation and surrender. Once again i don't use charts to tell me where we are in this cycle. In 87 I "saw" the crash within 2 weeks. We are biding our time for the dam to break. there is NO scenario that will prevent it from here on out. NONE!
I was wrong in October so perhaps i am wrong on this years move. BUT I must bet what I see and anticipate till proven wrong. Both BITCOIN and SPX are riding this wave together. BOTH are warning big time.
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