Replies to post #150266 on Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[kgromax]

Just waking up to that great failure.

Bravo Cytodyn, didn’t disappoint me. The same company that breaks every promise and misses every trial.

0 out of 5 endpoints met. Exactly what I had predicted, and many more skilled shortsellers had predicted before me. I drew my insights from >100 worldwide research studies that were all consistently showing that this trial was facing an uphill battle that was unwinnable, like the failed CD10 trial before.

As for the critical subpopulation, this is a textbook example of datamining for any student in statistics: they datamined a coincidence that is the result of chance. Let me explain: 63 patients is a tiny set and as such a 25% deviation of their mortality rate on one side or the other is EXTREMELY likely to occur just through random chance alone. For these 63 patients, whatever the placebo mortality baseline we assume (20 to 66% if you wish) and whatever the split between arms (20/80 to 50/50) I end up with p-values that dont support anything else than random chance everytime. Not statistically significant by far.

There is zero chance the regulators approve Leronlimab based on these Lotto numbers. At best, they will authorize Cytodyn to burn cash in yet another trial or extension that will take a year to complete. It took 9 months to get these 63 patients, it will take at least as much to add 100 or 150 assuming current hospitalization and mortality rates are stable in the US. But they are not: they are crashing down due to mass vaccine campaigns everywhere in the US so Cytodyn missed its « window of opportunity ». Worst case, regulators ignore Cytodyn’s demands like they did for CD10. Remember the 50 patients interim that got ignored (zero communication). Remember the patients resizing analysis requested by the DSMC that got ignored by management. It was all a show.

This proves everything I have written on the statistical side.

Now on the business side I have also written that I believe this company is a stock market fraud whose real objective is self-enrichment of its insiders. Everything they have been doing over the last years, and in CD12 in particular. Dumping shares before trial completion. Overcommunicating even small successes while hiding important pieces of bad news from their shareholders. This will continue next week as Nader is pivoting into Long Haulers. It’s a fraud engine that will never get anything approved anywhere. Reread this PR with this framework in mind. Nader is anything but certainly not transparent, the 3-4 key metrics are missing from this PR. It’s on purpose, to prevent non-statisticians (that dont know how to workaround these gaps) from running the numbers.