Nice job.
Now, I’m sitting in the audience at the Ihub Biotect Conference, and I’ve raised my hand to ask a few questions:
The young assistant hands me the microphone, while I place my noodle snack on my chair.
Ahem, so...
1) Why isn’t the valuation for L at least the same as for NVCR at year 1 - why the discrepancy;
2) Why isn’t the valuation for L and D separated out;
3) Doesn’t approval in Germany apply to all EU countries - so shouldn’t the rollouts happen about the same time for all countries;
4) What is the assumption for how long various indications for D can go through the approval process from each of the RAs?
At least for L, I agree with your range of between $15 and $30 billion, it makes sense. D is much more difficult to value, and a discounted cash flow approach might be a better methodology, given how forward looking for all the assumptions. Probably better off capturing risk rather than just assuming a multiple of revenue.
Good job on the presentation!