Thomas, thank you very much for your continued insight and reassurances. I realize you've been asked to throttle back a bit but I think I speak for many when I say seeing your posts on the board gives us a bit of hope. Those of us that are able to read between the lines are very grateful AND excited for what's to come. So thank you, and have a great day.
Great post, but to clarify - 200 US doctors prescribing 35/mo would equate to revenue of $330M (assuming diagnostic sale at ~$3300 USD). The $150M is based upon 9 doctors/clinic across 12 clinics, representing 108 doctors.
That being said, there are 480+ fertility clinics in the US, and if all of which prescribed at that rate (with assumed avg. of 5 docs/clinic), we would be seeing the $3B.
Numbers aren’t suspect: 12 clinics x 9 physicians x 35 scripts x 12 months x $500 = $22.6M Problem: -All 9 docs at each clinic won’t likely buy -Don’t think clinics have 9 docs -All 35 patients won’t need the script -It will take time for clinics to ramp in 2020 -PRED has no IVF sales reps as of today
Pump photos at NASDAQ combined with social media pumping by Thomas and Avira are reason OTCQX went sour, maybe NASDAQ too
The market revenue from ARTguide is rather simple (remember there are 24 million endometriosis symptomatic undiagnosed women in the U.S.;
Survey data indicates all fertility clinics are interested in ARTguide; A significant percentage (35 to 40%) of those clinics will order the ARTguide test for new patients; And new and existing female patients equal an average of 35 prescriptions per month per doctor. Initially, 15 larger clinics for clinical research are interested, and; Assume 12 (of the 15 clinics), each with 9 doctors will produce $150 million in annual revenue from the ARTguide diagnostic; Now consider 200 infertility doctors in the U.S. prescribing 35 prescriptions per month, which produces over $3.3 billion in annual revenue. There are 480+ female reproduction and fertility doctors identified (highly confident) that will use ARTguide in the U.S.
The 2019 American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM) will be attended by 9,300 reproductive doctors, specialists, and scientists, from 94 countries, representing a diagnosed endometriosis population of 176 million, and an estimated undiagnosed population of another 128 million women (for those that have been paying attention, China has 74+ million women diagnosed with endometriosis). https://asrmcongress.org/
Consider PRED's U.S. and internationally patented ARTguide diagnostic is being launched on the market at the world's leading reproductive conference (ASRM) attended by over 9,300 reproductive specialists, representing a global diagnosed and undiagnosed endometriosis population of 300+ million women. https://www.rightdiagnosis.com/e/endometriosis/stats-country.htm
PRED's Near Term Market Cap? Use the below PE, and note there are many other companion proprietary gene diagnostics and therapeutics in PRED's pipeline but let's just consider the multiples for ARTguide.
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