Replies to post #258030 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[williamssc]

“As the Company prepares to advance Brilacidin into Phase 3 development for the prevention and treatment of oral mucositis, initially in Head and Neck Cancer, this new patent provides additional key protections,” commented Arthur P. Bertolino, MD, PhD, MBA, President and Chief Medical Officer at Innovation Pharmaceuticals. “Oral mucositis represents a large area of unmet need and a substantial market opportunity. We, along with potential Pharma partners, feel Brilacidin—as a conveniently-administered oral rinse—is well-positioned possibly to emerge one day as a frontline, go-to treatment for this common, costly and debilitating side-effect of chemoradiation.”

[Lemoncat]

No one is more aware of the gigantic upside potential and plans than I am. I routinely post Kevetrin comps with upfronts that dwarf our current market cap by orders of magnitude. I eagerly await partnerships on both Brilacidin and Kevetrin.

The upside is large: 300%, 500%, 1000%+. All of these and more can be achievable with a single deal depending on the size.

When the company explicitly illustrates the potential downside in no uncertain terms in a 10-Q, I am keen to heed the warning. It means there is a real enough chance of it happening that they need to cover their butts just in case. We don't have as much time as you state to lounge around looking for partners without a financing deal.

This is a great gamble if you assume a 50-50 chance of success. The upside is easily more than 100%, probably on up to 1000% or more, with even a small deal. The downside is 100%. Until we get financing secured this is nothing more than a gamble, albeit a compelling one for the right position size. It is still an unenviable position for those who over allocated their portfolios with CTIX at $2+ though.

[TheDane]

Excellent post! I agree 100%. The March 31st fright wig is is unconvincing and not realistic.