tryz, of course I'd be happier if the stock price was higher. If you step back and look at where we stand with each drug, near term expenses, and available cash, it makes sense that IPIX hasn't finalized a deal.
Good data should lead to good deals. Prurisol phase 2b is near completion. The increased dosing should tell us if Prurisol has high likelihood of commercial viability. Obviously, Prurisol is worth a lot more with decent/good data than without Phase 2b topline data. To me it seems prudent to wait for top line data before finalizing a deal.
Brilacidin is tricky. We have nice data for Brilacidin ABSSSI Phase 2b and I have no doubt that Brilacidin is at least as good as Vancomycin so it's likely they could do a deal if they chose to. The good problem is that others may be interested in the entire Brilacidin franchise based on potential for treatment of inflammatory bowel disease, prevention of oral mucositis, and the many other likely therapeutic uses for Brilacidin. I'd love to see multiple deals for Brilacidin- one for ABSSSI (IV formulation), one for prevention of oral mucositis, and one for the various inflammatory bowel formulations. These are entirely distinct markets with completely different sales/marketing. So if you have BP interest in several therapeutic uses for Brilacidin and and another is focused on a single indication, at what point do you commit? We have good data for ABSSSI, excellent interim data for B-OM with anticipated top line this year, compelling POC results for ulcerative proctitis, and what should be a clear path for ulcerative colitis and Crohn's formulations. Again, I think it makes more sense to wait for top line B-OM before committing to a deal for a single therapeutic indication or for the entire franchise.
Kevetrin is what we talk about the least these days and I think there's good reason to do an early deal. Again, and it was a link provided by slcimmuno, the sweet spot for doing a deal for a cancer drug is after Phase 2. The current phase 2 is mostly focused on mechanism of action and toxicity but hopefully we'll see signs of efficacy. In determining MOA we should get a pretty good read on various surrogate markers which could carry a lot of weight with BP if the drug is well tolerated. The clinical trial path for oncology drugs is ridiculously long and expensive and I'd actually like to see a deal for Kevetrin after the current Phase 2 which should also be done by the end of the year. It might be a back heavy deal but the up front payment should be enough to put IPIX on more certain financial footing.
The company does have a reasonable vehicle for raising cash so it's doable but not ideal and the sooner the deal, the better for reducing our reliance on Aspire. I'm reasonably comfortable with the just in time approach for raising funds as long as the financing vehicle is in place (which it is). Leo has been conservative in tapping Aspire and has minimized dilution which is great for long-term shareholders but gives many (understandably) the perception of financial weakness. Obviously, a decent deal could change that perception over night. That's my bet.
My apologies for the long winded post but bottom line from my perspective is we have a lot of top line data coming in over the next 3-4 months (Prurisol, B-OM) and will also likely see important Kevetrin data for cohort A by year end, all of which are setting us up for a deal. We don't know what's going on behind the scenes and which BPs IPIX is talking to but to say there's no interest or that they can't do a deal is ridiculous at this point. I'm very optimistic and I have a very large share position but my focus is on the intermediate/long-term.
Best of luck
biodoc
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