Replies to post #91 on Mongolian Mining Corp. (MOGLF)

[Ponch73]

OMOLIVES,

Thanks for your insights and perspective.

What do you think MMC is worth in a scenario where a Tavan Togloi deal with the consortium doesn't come to fruition? Would you still be a MOGLQ investor or would the investment case become much less compelling?

An ETT deal is certainly still possible, but the current word on the street is that the GOM is being greedy and pushing Shenhua for the best possible terms. Not exactly the way to handle a negotiation where your back is up against the wall, right? At this point, a deal is not likely to happen until the summer, at the earliest.

We shouldn't discount the possibility that the powers that be in Mongolia can't get out of their own way and are the gang that couldn't shoot straight. From an investment standpoint, the country has a track record of seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. In some respects, the GOM getting a bailout from the IMF eliminated a catalyst to getting an ETT deal done. If the IMF had balked, and the GOM had to seek a bailout from the Chinese, an ETT deal would likely have been part of the package.

I think that's why we've seen such weak price action out of Hong Kong. I'm guessing that investors there with Chinese government contacts know exactly how far the ETT deal is from the finish line.

Best,

Vik