Replies to post #85646 on Bioelectronics Corp (BIEL)

[Gramps]

Yes, good post Taz.

[yankee55]

Excellent post Tazzer as there are so many folks on the sidelines waiting to jump in as soon as good FDA news comes. Many will be surprised when the news breaks as it often happens when the least expect it. They will be chasing the stock as the massive buy volume will send the ask price through the roof. It will be like a hot IPO trading on the first day once news hits the wires.

[Det_Robert_Thorne]

What is evidence that BIEL isn't diluting?

BIEL not diluting at this point tells me they are encouraged by the FDA meeting and are think approval is around the corner.

I fail to see any evidence that BIEL is not continuing to dilute, and in fact, I think that the company added 400M - 650M shares during the quarter that just ended.

Here's how I come by that estimate:

At the end of 4Q/15, BIEL had roughly $144K in cash

In the 1Q/16 financials, BIEL reported $22K in cash, and that it had received proceeds of approximately $182K from issuing notes payable. During 1Q/16, it issued 395M shares.

At the end of 2Q/16, BIEL had $12.6K in cash, and reported $535K in proceeds from notes payable. During the second calendar quarter, BIEL issued 587M shares.

Since BIEL is still reporting operating losses, it's likely that the company needed to issue more notes in 3Q/16, and there are notes on the balance sheet that are eligible for conversion.

How many shares might we see?

Let's do a forecast based on the number of high-volume days (when most think that dilution occurs via note conversion and share dumping) vs the number of shares issued in 1Q and 2Q/16.

For this exercise, I've set the lower limit for a "high-volume" day at 70M shares or more per day (about 2 times the 36M average daily volume), and the data is taken from OTC Markets from Jan 1, 2016 through Sept 30, 2016.

http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/BIEL/chart

In 1Q/16, there were two trading days with volume of 70M or more, with a total of 468M shares trading over those two days. By the end of that quarter, BIEL had issued 395M shares.

For 2Q/16, there were nine trading days of 70M or better, totaling 994M shares. In that quarter, BIEL issued 587M new shares.

In the third quarter ending 9/30 (3Q/16), there were five trading days when more than 70M shares traded, for a five-day total of 704M shares.

Based on the dilution in 1Q/16 and 2Q/16 versus the total traded on the high-volume days, and factoring in the lower stock price in 3Q/16, I estimate that in the third quarter, BIEL issued from 400M - 650M new shares.

Anyone want to provide an alternate estimate and the way they get to it?

[misanthrope]

BIEL not diluting at this point

Every indication is that BIEL continues to dilute at will or at need; no evidence this activity hasn't ceased - in fact, quite the opposite.

The price is low for a plethora of reasons, dilution being one, awaiting FDA approval another, etc. I won't speculate on the FDA issue. I will say that approval is not a guarantee of sales; a lot more work will have to be done to insure approval translates into revenue. It wasn't too long ago that the FDA approved the first diet pill since phen-phen's market removal. There was great (and ultimately unfulfilled) expectations on sales. The numbers just never met expectations. It happens. The stock price went up $10 per share on the approval, but today sits right around pre-approval prices. Will be interesting to see how BIEL does if approval is announced.

As for the stock - wild predictions regarding the uptick may meet with some disappointment, largely due to the significant dilution. The upward pressure will be in some portion negated by dumping - it's just difficult to say exactly what that impact will be - but there will be some. It's one of the negative side effects of dilution. Again, we will see how it plays out if approval is granted.