The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 30, 2016. Change is week-over-week.
Crude oil: The failure two weeks ago to break out of a potentially bullish reverse head-and-shoulders formation is proving costly for spot West Texas Intermediate crude. After last week’s three-percent drop, it dropped another 6.7 percent this week.
Momentum was already down. Come Wednesday, the spot suffered a daily bearish MACD cross, also losing the declining 50-day moving average. The 200-day – flattish – is 7.9 percent away. Wednesday’s EIA data was not much help.
In the week ended August 26th, crude stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels to 525.9 million barrels – a nine-week high.
Distillate stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels to 154.8 million barrels – a 16-week high.
Crude imports were up 275,000 barrels per day to 8.9 million b/d – the highest since September 14, 2012.
Gasoline stocks, however, fell by 691,000 barrels to 232 million barrels. This was the lowest since January 1st this year.
Refinery utilization rose three-tenths of a point to 92.8 percent.
Last but not the least, crude production fell by 60,000 b/d to 8.49 mb/d. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.
Off the August 19th high of $49.36, the spot is now down five points. Support at $43-$43.50 has taken on a new significance. It was defended on Thursday and Friday.