Sully, I could not agree with you more about Denner. This is what I think and it is IMHO pure and simple. I would love to get yours and SS's and others take on what might be happening.
First, as of 9/30/15, Ariad was the second largest holding of Sarissa Capital at 12,850,000 shares totaling $75,044,000 (per their filing) which I calculate to be $5.84 per share. In addition, I would bet a lot of money that institutional positions will only increase including Sarissa after the PP was dropped. Also, there is no way that Denner is spending a lot of time with this company (CEO ousting, BOD work, Presidential Search, etc, etc) if he does not expect an exponential increase in pps by the time of a buyout/alliance. Remember in May during the interview when he was asked the question where he would put his money and with a huge smile he said "Ariad".
Secondly, right now this is like a Poker Game where "the PLAYERS" (not us retailers) are stacking the deck, playing with the pot and even looking at each others cards. There are two classes of investors here
1. The retailers that have no idea what is going on and from time to time get their hopes up and then are dashed in a few days/weeks/months. It is a complete given that we have no information about the plan and worse yet we are trying to interpret the signals in rational ways using what we learned in Economics....Supply and Demand. This has nothing to do with Supply and Demand but rather a "set up" that will be triggered when all the stars are aligned. And believe me, the trigger once it is pulled will be explosive.
2. The hedge funds, MM's and other players who shake and bake the pps at will using "scared" money and taking out stops and wanting cheap shares. They are literally jerking the pps around in order to borrow/loan options, accumulate cheap shares and in the end there is nothing reliable at present to understand day to day. Sometime (I have no idea when), the short positions will clear out, the options pricing will align and "they" (the big boys) will have done their accumulating. Until then there is nothing to do but watch and most importantly be patient and hold on.
Clearly, this is no fun for us and this is the painful part of possibly making money for some (me included) and recouping for others. Obviously, Denner loves the science and knows that the value of the company is all about the future science being applied by a bigger company who wants the additional revenue without the additional time (really important) and risky investment in their own research. Further, Ariad obviously has developed propriety methods of being able to add and add needed drugs which are valuable.
That is my take on it at present. Thanks for listening.
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