Greenspan's report will be the most important event this week. Of course the earnings deluge begins and frankly I'm not impressed so far with the warnings and earnings reported. The bond market holds the key going forward. How do you tell investors and the average Joe/Jane that the economy is set for accelerated growth without panicking the bond market? Neat trick. Worse what if the economy continues to sputter, or worse, head for recession? I doubt he can have it both ways. So will the bull market in bonds end next week? I think it will. I also think the rising rates will put the finishing touch on one of the worst monetary policies I've ever seen. From the liquidity pump prior to Y2K, to the "wage based inflation" mumbo-jumbo of the late 90's, to the slow to react surprise rate cut in December of 2000 (acknowledging trouble, but late) to the 13? (is it 13?) rate cuts that haven't done anything, but build a new bubble to burst in housing the FED has been "muddling" all along. I hope it doesn't occur, but from where I sit, viewing whats happened in the past 30 months, what has been promised by the FED and what has really happened doen't leave me much optimism. If this economy slides into a 2nd recession I'd say we've seen the worst FED policy in my lifetime.....I'm all ears Mr. Chairman!
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