Replies to post #92401 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[sox040713]

Last year some people said the same thing about B-ABSSSI. They could have bought in around $1.60. But they rather pay more after the single dose proves itself in Phase 2b. Well, wishes granted. Now the price of admission is at least double.

When the positive data comes out after phase 1( and phase 2 )you can scoff at latecomers to CTIX, such as me, and you will be proven correct. I hope the results are good too.

[Waverunner1]

Well, if you trust the people who just heard it straight from the horse's mouth at the Biotech Showcase last month, Menon indicated that so far Kevetrin is working in the clinical trial just like it did in vivo. That means increasing p53 activation with increasing dose for humans as well.

If human response parallels mouse, then I will have missed out on a lot of money.

[thefamilyman]

I hope you don't mind if some of us get an early start on that "scoffing" thing. ;-)

De-risked? I realize you all believe otherwise BUT:

what if the recent cohorts do not show a rise in p21? what if recent cohort pts do not improve much? This will mean that more trials will go forward, once an MTD is established, but announcement by CTIX of such results would certainly hurt the share price . IMO. That is why I have not bought any shares yet.

If human response parallels mouse, then I will have missed out on a lot of money. shares will be way higher with truly positive news. But it is not yet written in stone.So far they have talked about one pt with widespread ovarian ca who was getting better with respect to CT scan spleen findings and ascites- but dropped out anyway. There needs to be more data.

When the positive data comes out after phase 1( and phase 2 )you can scoff at latecomers to CTIX, such as me, and you will be proven correct. I hope the results are good too. - To infinity and beyond!

[TOB]

Again, you may have missed my points in my reply.

De-risked? I realize you all believe otherwise BUT: -TIAB

And here you go on to talk about Kevetrin. Yet main my point is that CTIX at the current share price is greatly de-risked by the Brilacidin trial. Brilacidin is the primary SP driver at this point. CTIX is also further de-risked by the absence of binary pass or fail trials at this point. Brilacidin has passed P2b and Kevetrin looks all but certain to have a successful P1 for the Primary Outcome Measures of safety and MTD.

Again, please read the actual post.

what if the recent cohorts do not show a rise in p21? what if recent cohort pts do not improve much? This will mean that more trials will go forward, once an MTD is established, but announcement by CTIX of such results would certainly hurt the share price . IMO. That is why I have not bought any shares yet. -TIAB

I addressed this point as well. The current Kevetrin trial is a Phase I Dose Escalation trial. The Primary Outcome Measures are safety and finding the Maximum Tolerated Dose.

With a positive Primary Outcome result the trial is a success and can move on to later stage trials that look for the therapeutic dose and test for efficacy. With just this primary outcome success, there is a P1b or P2 combination trial for AML waiting to start, and later stage Kevetrin trials are highly likely. Thus the share price is also de-risked in regards to Kevetrin.

Thus with a successful Primary Outcome, the trial is a success and the share price is either stable, or rising as later stage trials get under way which have primary outcome measures of efficacy.

Alternatively, as the Kevetrin trial has Secondary Outcome Measures that can indicate efficacy, positive results can be a significant share price catalyst. Kevetrin could as a result even skip stages and move to a faster tract. I think we agree on this point.

IMO the Kevetrin trial has little risk of causing a share price decline at this point, only a failure of the primary outcome measure would do this. Yet Kevetrin has a strong chance at causing a share price rally. The strength of the rally will be affected by the secondary outcome measures, but just moving to later stages to test for efficacy should also cause some share price rally.

In any case, Brilacidin should result in a higher CTIX share price regardless of what is happening on the Kevetrin front.

[TOB]

If human response parallels mouse, then I will have missed out on a lot of money. shares will be way higher with truly positive news. But it is not yet written in stone.So far they have talked about one pt with widespread ovarian ca who was getting better with respect to CT scan spleen findings and ascites- but dropped out anyway. There needs to be more data -TIAB

I agree. We have heard only a couple of case studies. I think we agree here that with positive secondary outcome measures, the CTIX share price "will be way higher". Where we may disagree is the effect on the share price should there be positive Kevertin P1 primary outcome measure, but not so much in the secondary outcome measures. You seem to believe the share price will suffer, my opinion is that it will be stable or rising because,

A: There will be at least two new Kevetrin Trials, and

B: Brilacidin is the main CTIX price driver in the coming months. It alone should result in higher CTIX share prices.

In Summary:

1. Brilacidin is the main share price driver for the current period.

2. A Kevetrin P1 positive primary outcome is all but certain, and moving to later stage trials should at least support the current share price, but more typically lead to higher share prices.

3. A Kevetrin P1 positive secondary outcome measure is share price neutral if it is not compelling due to #2 and the fact that this is a P1 trial with a small sample size which does not require indications of efficacy to be successful. Unlike later stage efficacy trials. Alternatively, indications of efficacy and the share price has a strong catalyst.

4. Other trials and catalysts are in play, such as Brilacidin-OM, and a NASDAQ up-listing. These are potentially strong share price catalysts.

5. Neither Kevetrin nor Brilacidin is at a binary result stage, such as a pass or fail Phase 3 trial. Brilacidin passed Phase 2b, and Kevetrin looks almost certain to enter Phase 2. Thus at the current time, IMO, risk is very low (de-risked). When we do have binary risk later, it is likely CTIX will be trading at a much higher share price.

When the positive data comes out after phase 1( and phase 2 )you can scoff at latecomers to CTIX, such as me, and you will be proven correct. I hope the results are good too. -TIAB

Again, missing my point. My opinion does not require a big win at Kevetrin Phase 1. Of course I'd like that, but the share price should do fine with a positive primary outcome result. Again, Brilacidin will drive the share price.

I'm also not interested in scoffing at anyone, just discussing CTIX.