Replies to post #55366 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[Whosetosay]

There are many camps on this board. Most of the old timers here, including me, avg'd in at the 2's. Some even lower.

The news on '113 is very good, the problem is that the revenue it will provide is years away. It would start in 2016, competing against 3 or more other approved drugs, and still have to go through a first line trial. The ALK+ NSCLC incidence each year is in the 8-10,000 range, I believe.

Although it may not help with the cash problem in 2015, it is imperative that '113 continue to get good results to begin to provide some rhythm into the pps. I think it unlikely that the pps will benefit enough from '113 alone to permit equity financing, but equity financing remains a possibility if the Pona recovery astounds also, and mN is a winner.