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KauaiPI

05/15/03 8:54 PM

#422 RE: TheFastOne #421

TFO~I don't view your posts as... "spew(ing) negative" and I truly try to encourage all debate (good and bad based on ones perspective) so keep'em coming lol

As for ERTH ... a couple of cheap AH sales ... volume backed off ... don't see accumulation ... I feel this may have been manipulation in advance of the slam so the big boys could dump some ... That lack of income thing is what has me convinced r/s will happen and price will drop after June 3rd.

Don't mean to come here and spew negative ... and I still believe the day will come when this stock is $10 + ... time frame is pushed back due to lack of progress ... r/s which will damper volume significantly ... and future dilution which is being set up.

I guess it is my mercenary nature which supercedes my love for the product. As always I do wish all the best!
TFO


In fact, I am, as I stated earlier, concerned over the time table discussion as cross post from Yahoo detailed and is why I posted it here... and I didn't think I was "spewing negative" <Bg> ...just what this board IMO needs to continue to see ERTH in a light that is not always through rose colored glasses ...see 'm as I call 'em.... or is it call 'em as I see 'em?

As to APT, currently no position. I was in and researched and last we compared notes, I believe you felt it could be had around $1.75 and my entry point (GTC) order is above that and below your entry.

Tim is a holder of APT last I checked with him.

I do see what you mean as APT seems to move in a nice little range ...all it seems to take is another SARS article or a PR about increased mask shipments or million dollar orders. Personally, I am not enamored with them and beyond traders playing the range, don't see changing my GTC order re-entry level .... thanks for bringing it back to my attention!

best!
kp
PS I'll take a look at "ANR & NXTP are two others to watch"

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KauaiPI

05/20/03 11:10 PM

#435 RE: TheFastOne #421

TFO~a check to see if this gets to the board... I have been trying to ask some Q's (ot) about your watch list items ANR and NXPT, it this makes it, I'll post more about what I saw and was curious about what you saw...

IHub has been having troubles lately now that they seem to be sharing a server with the SI site they recently purchased. What a drag, I had a LONG post to make but all day they seem to have been screwed up with everything they are doing ...or so it seems... consider this merely a test!

best!
kp

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KauaiPI

05/20/03 11:19 PM

#436 RE: TheFastOne #421

TFO~kool, it made it so here goes (OT) ANR and NXPT;

ANR

Curious, the day you posted to "watch" seemed to be a peak (1.29) ... did you take a position? I am not seeing the strength you may have and would appreciate your feed back.

Unlike Tim's board (BeatTheStreet), this board doesn't *require* any DD for suggested stocks to watch but that is always appreciated... I took a look at ANR and found it, well, interesting! Enough to keep me looking at it and I have posted the preliminary DD that I took a look at:

52-Week Change -94.0%
52-Week Change relative to S&P500 -92.9%

Share-Related Items

Market Capitalization $29.5M
Shares Outstanding 26.1M
Float 26.0M

Dividends & Splits

Annual Dividend (indicated) $0.20
Dividend Yield 0.00%

Last Split none


Per-Share Data

Book Value (mrq*) $10.28
Earnings (ttm) -$7.44
Earnings (mrq) -$2.03
Sales (ttm) $16.88
Cash (mrq*) $5.86

Valuation Ratios

Price/Book (mrq*) 0.11
Price/Earnings N/A
Price/Sales (ttm) 0.07

Income Statements

Sales (ttm) $434.9M
EBITDA N/A
Income available to common (ttm) -$191.8M

Profitability

Profit Margin (ttm) -44.1%
Operating Margin (ttm) -28.2%

Fiscal Year

Fiscal Year Ends Dec 31

Most recent quarter (fully updated) 31-Dec-2002

Most recent quarter

(flash earnings) 31-Mar-2003


Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (ttm) -8.54%
Return on Equity (ttm) -53.11%

Financial Strength

Current Ratio N/A
Debt/Equity (mrq*) 0
Total Cash (mrq*) $152.9M

Short Interest As of 8-Apr-2003

Shares Short 194.0K
Percent of Float 0.7%
Shares Short (Prior Month) 296.0K
Short Ratio 1.10
Daily Volume 176.0K
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I liked the dividend *possibilites* but wonder if they can sustain that based on the lack of positive earnings? Also would need to see what the book value is based on but the CASH sure seems strong and paying a buck for a share is a considerable discount to the cash! Very interesting!

I wasn't all that excited after viewing the "Recent Earnings Announcement"; For the 3 months ended 03/31/2003, revenues were 86,334; after tax earnings were -52,475. (Preliminary; reported in thousands of dollars.)

...and that was following the previous fiscal reported; For the fiscal year ended 12/31/02, revenues rose 24% to $456.3M. Net loss before actg. change totaled $128.9 million, up from $36.9 million. Results reflect higher level of new business written and the increase in the face amount of insurance, and a rise in policy benefit expenses.

TIA

Do you have a position in ANR and NXPT? I wasn't all that impressed with NXPT although it seems to be adding value to the shareholder's "share price" in the last few days and has made in roads over the 52 week low back in July '02

Seeing two "key" areas I normally look closely at indicate both fell below my normal desires, how did you come to watch them?
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Management Effectiveness (NXPT)

Return on Assets (ttm) -13.85%
Return on Equity (ttm) -204.24%

Financial Strength

Current Ratio (mrq) 2.13
Debt/Equity (mrq) 20.39
--

Management Effectiveness (ANR)

Return on Assets (ttm) -8.54%
Return on Equity (ttm) -53.11%

Financial Strength

Current Ratio N/A
Debt/Equity (mrq*) 0
Total Cash (mrq*) $152.9M

TA

best!
kp
PS... I know, why am I being so picky having my position in ERTH, huh <Bg>