pmiles,
Yes, I have the 4.5 year Hurst cycle low as Nov. 2012, a contracted 4.5 year cycle. That is the basis of my post in Jan. And why we should be on the lookout for a problem here in this 20 week cycle. I expect a straddle low (4.5 year) to form by the summer.
You know that Hurst never considered cycles to invert. The way I look at it is this. If a major cycle fails and puts in a high where you expected a low, then the trend has likely changed.
I'll go to today's situation. Let's say that the 18 month cycle, which has been running ~15-16 months (from 2009) was actually the early Feb. low. And if the major trend for this 9 year cycle were to change, then that low in Feb. would eventually fail to hold. I call that a cycle failure and it will likely occur here.
The same thing happened in 2007. We all saw the Aug. 2007 low as an 18 month and 4.5 year Hurst cycle low. But when it failed to hold later in 2008, you knew there was a big problem with the cyclic picture. Again I call this an example of cycle failure.
Price action will tell us a lot in the coming weeks and we'll see how we make the next 10 week low.
cheers,
john
PS Crude oil is in big trouble and gold has turned in a bullish cycle (rally >10 weeks) off the late 2013 low.
AI
