AI
Tuesday, January 07, 2014 12:27:08 AM
Re: The 4 year Cycle
Nope not dead yet. I haven't been keeping up with the markets much of late and I haven't wanted to say much in the prediction category until now. I underestimated the bullishness of 2013.
The 4 year cycle (ie. approx. 48 months) vanished sometime between 2005 and 2010. The central banks have done a terrific job of distorting the 4 year cycle since that time. I can show you charts dating back to the 50s where a 4 year cycle arrives like clock work. That is not the case today. However, the 4 year cycle does have a way of showing itself, it just hasn't shown up right now as we cycle theorists would expect. Please note that the view I show below is different from a Hurst look. I should also qualify that 1998 and 2009 were 9 year lows per Hurst, and that 2009 was also a 36 year low and likely involved even longer cycles.
In the wisdom of the great Dewey, he believed that when cycles disappear, they will eventually reappear.
[quote"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain][/quote]
The next 4 year cycle is due for a low in July 2014. That's a prediction.
How that low arrives is difficult to call because sometimes as Forrest Gump would say: "My Momma always said ... Life is like a box of chocolates, You never know what you are gonna get". It may be a soft landing or pause before a continuation higher (2006 was a good example), or something more severe.
Once that 4 year low is in, we should see another leg up in this bull.
Good luck and good trading in 2014!
cheers,
john
PS I will slowly try to get back into market analysis this year, slowly ....
Nope not dead yet. I haven't been keeping up with the markets much of late and I haven't wanted to say much in the prediction category until now. I underestimated the bullishness of 2013.
The 4 year cycle (ie. approx. 48 months) vanished sometime between 2005 and 2010. The central banks have done a terrific job of distorting the 4 year cycle since that time. I can show you charts dating back to the 50s where a 4 year cycle arrives like clock work. That is not the case today. However, the 4 year cycle does have a way of showing itself, it just hasn't shown up right now as we cycle theorists would expect. Please note that the view I show below is different from a Hurst look. I should also qualify that 1998 and 2009 were 9 year lows per Hurst, and that 2009 was also a 36 year low and likely involved even longer cycles.
In the wisdom of the great Dewey, he believed that when cycles disappear, they will eventually reappear.
[quote"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain][/quote]
The next 4 year cycle is due for a low in July 2014. That's a prediction.
How that low arrives is difficult to call because sometimes as Forrest Gump would say: "My Momma always said ... Life is like a box of chocolates, You never know what you are gonna get". It may be a soft landing or pause before a continuation higher (2006 was a good example), or something more severe.
Once that 4 year low is in, we should see another leg up in this bull.
Good luck and good trading in 2014!
cheers,
john
PS I will slowly try to get back into market analysis this year, slowly ....
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