Stinkeye Aggressive Growth Fund

[stinkeye]

Now let's look at the revenue side for IFUE...

I'm assuming cost to the end user of $.03/gallon....

Union Pacific - 1.3 billion gallons x $.03 = $39 Million

BNSF - 1 billion gallons x $.03 = $30 Million

Canadian National - 403 million gallons x $.03 = $12.09 Million

Norfolk Southern - 513 million gallons x $.03 = $15.39 Million

CSX - 595 million gallons x $.03 = $17.85 Million

Accounting for only the 5 largest US Rail Companies, we have a potential annual revenue figure of $114.3 Million The average Price to Sales ratio of a growing company in the Specialty Chemical sector is 8-10 times sales.

Using this Price/Sales Metric, IFUE would conservatively be valued in the above scenario at $114 Million X 8 = $912 Million or $10.85/share based on today's 84million shares outstanding.

Keep in mind, as sexy as those revenue numbers and price per share are, that is assuming ONLY the 5 largest DOMESTIC railways are users. Those numbers don't include trucking, power generation, or international rail.


[edit] Also keep in mind that once a growth story like IFUE gets rolling, valuations relative to its sector are meaningless. For an example just look at the SAG Funds recent play of the SUF run-up. Sulphco went from nowhere to a $1 Billion market cap on ZERO sales. A move undoubtedly triggered by speculation, but nonetheless, an example of how rational valuations quickly get forgotten when exponential growth is perceived. [end edit]