Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

Two questions:

1) How many years of data did Hurst analyze to identify and verify the cycles?

2) Is it theoretically possible that the market would bypass a major cycle such as the 80-week low? I know that if all we got was the equivalent of a 5-week low, there would be those tempted to call it the 80-week low, but that would be cheating in my view. An 80-week low where the 4-year cycle is now pointing down should have a fair amplitude to the downside--at least something larger than a 5-week cycle low. So I would expect to see the S&P dip to at least 1220 as a minimum target. So here is what I'm asking: Is it theoretically possible that if the S&P does not exceed 1280 at the high that it would dip no lower than 1250 at the 80-week low? Or is the 80-week so compellingly necessary that we will see that larger dip to 1220 minimum no matter what?

BBelt