AEZS: $50 MM cash, $58 MM Market cap, Phase 3 results soon
Q1 2013
AEZS expects to reach the Interim Analysis of Perifosine's Phase 3 clinical trial for Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma. The trial began in December of 2009, and AEZS decided to move ahead with this trial after it received the rights of Perifosine back from Keryx earlier this year, based on the strength of the Phase I/II trial results. The full trial is expected to be approximately 400 patients in 10 countries, including 40 to 50 sites in the U.S. The primary endpoint of the trial is progression free survival, with secondary endpoints of overall survival, overall response rate and safety. About 265 events, categorized as disease progression or death, will trigger data to be unblinded.
The Interim Analysis of safety, efficacy and futility is scheduled after 80 events. The management expects this threshold to occur in the first quarter of 2013. If positive activity trends are identified, the trial can continue to add patients. If this occurs, the stock should have a positive reaction.
On Tuesday, analysts at Maxim sent clients an initiation report covering AEterna Zentaris with a BUY recommendation and a $9 price target for recently discounted shares. Given the historical data and the current design and execution of the phase III trial in multiple myeloma, the banking firm's research team believes perifosine has a strong probability of meeting its SPA-approved primary endpoint. The analyst wrote:
"We are initiating coverage of AEterna Zentaris with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $9.00. We believe that Aeterna Zentaris is misunderstood as a result of the failed trial that partner Keryx (KERX-$2.78.NR) experienced with perifosine in colon cancer (the "X-PECT" trial). Data from phase I/II trials in multiple myeloma (MM) suggest that perifosine is an active molecule in this hematological malignancy. It is not uncommon in the cancer research paradigm to see a compound fail in one trial and then succeed in another when dosing and other parameters are varied, as was the case with Avastin (by Roche-RHHBY, $49.41, NR) and Nexavar (by Onyx-ONXX, $89.70, NR). "
