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Re: PraveenP post# 748

Tuesday, 09/25/2012 9:49:25 PM

Tuesday, September 25, 2012 9:49:25 PM

Post# of 758
Praveen,

I agree that the demographics favor health care stocks, I'm ahead of you in the ageing curve, and that's part of my problem. I'm avoiding health care stocks, at least directly. It's the politics that concern me. The so=called ACA places penalty on health care insurers that don't pay out a high enough percentage of premiums to providers. That smacks of defense department kind of accounting, and will result in higher costs, not lower costs. It also means that there is no financial incentive for insurers to lower costs beyond a limited range. Similarly, device makers are subject to a new tax, drug companies are going to find that they have little ability to negotiate prices, with basically just one buyer. Regardless of how the election turns out, I'll sit it out.

If I see a free market approach may be taken, and a sector gets beaten down, I'll take it. But till then, I don't see any health care stocks that can't potentially be taken down to zero. Insurers are the least loved, politically. If ACA fails, and Democrats remain in control, I'd expect a single payer system, and insurers would appear to be worth zero in that case. Do you know what happened to insurers in other Western countries? Not a rhetorical question, I don't know the answer, but I suspect that it's not a happy one.

I also am not a fan of much of conventional medicine. I see the federal takeover, an establishment of conventional medicine. I'm in a medicare advantage plan, like a quarter of all seniors. My plan will be cut next year (conveniently after the election). If I were to want to see an Ayurdevic provider who lacked western medical credentials, I'd have to pay out of pocket, in addition to any premiums for health care.

The most attractive health care stocks to me, then, in the interim, would be those, who derive most of their profits outside of the U.S.

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