Our Global Investment Strategy service recommends selling crude oil.
Oil prices and short-term interest rates have risen to levels that could trigger downward momentum in consumer spending. This will ultimately result in weaker crude prices as demand is curtailed. Personal consumption is already showing signs of cracking, with consumer confidence and retailing stocks losing momentum in recent weeks. Cracks are also appearing in house price inflation, which has been the cornerstone of US consumption. All of this is occuring at a time when sentiment towards crude is at a worrisome level, consistent with cyclical peaks in oil prices over the last 15 years. Bottom line: sell crude oil.