Biotech Values

[masterlongevity]

I think Lilly is further behind the rest of the field in planning or thinking on early AD or Prodromal AD or asymptomatic. I do not think they will win in those areas with solanezumab because i think Roche, Genenetech and Merck will beat them there. I also think BMS and JNJ/PFE/ELN were well ahead of Lilly in planning and thinking about early AD, but their products fizzled.

The shot that I think Lilly may have, depending on the strength of the mild subset, is actually in mild AD. If the data shows sola has at least a 2pt change on ADAS-COG and this correlates with biomarkers, then i think Lilly could do 1 more trial in mild AD and get approval. This would be a way they could get to the market 1st.

One disadvantage to sola compared to crenezumab or gantenerumab is that sola only removes soluble oligimers and it is most likely more effective to remove all toxic forms of abeta (monomers, dimers, plaques as well). I think the other 2 products will be stronger.

Lilly has also been less aggressive than merck in the BACE program and i think the Merck program will win barring unforeseen side effects.

Despite lilly having a footprint in AD,< they really haven't been on the cutting edge, but maybe slow and steady will win the race.