Short Term Trading Member Forum

[SilentOne]

re: Hurst update

hi Slinky,

I posted my thoughts over at the Sentient forum this morning.

http://www.fortuna.co.za/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=476&p=1568#p1568

I don't have the time right now to do a thorough analysis of say the 30 DOW stocks, but just looking at a few names it is suggests that we are not likely making 9 year lows here for the US markets this fall. To take the 2009 low as a 4.5 and 9 year low makes more sense given price action late this year.

I have been entertaining the idea the last few months that we are in a new 4.5 year cycle much like off the '74 low. I wanted to see the price action this fall before taking it more seriously. And if this is the case, then until we make the coming 4.5 year cycle low (which means we will have to get through at least one more 18 month cycle), these markets will be very tricky to trade from a Hurst perspective.

We are closing on a house today. We haven't been home owners in the last 16 years (due to my wife's expat status), so busy times ahead.

cheers,

john

P.S. I am finally off prednisone for the first time since March and things are looking up regarding my health and autoimmune condition. :)