JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

[chmcnfunds]

JDSU's Post-Earnings Trading Pattern Sets Up Plays For Longs And Shorts

November 1, 2011


JDSU (JDSU) is due to report its Q1 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting the company to post revenue of $415 million and a profit of $0.13 per share.

JDSU is one to watch for potential next-day wider movement as the stock has seen more aggressive next-day action following 24 of its last 31 after-hours earnings events, or about 77% of the time. The stock adds to its evening trade in next-day action regardless of whether its up or down in the after-hours, offering both longs and shorts solid opportunities to play the shares.

The near-term performance favors widening, as the issue has expanded its after-hours move in next-day regular session trade in six of the last eight quarters.

On Aug. 17, 2011, JDSU dropped 3.5% in after-hours trading after meeting Q4 earnings estimates but also setting its Q1 outlook below expectations. The stock was hammered lower the next day, closing the Aug. 18 regular session.

On May 4, 2011, JDSU jumped 9.5% in night trading after beating Q3 estimates and setting its Q4 guidance in a range that straddled the Street view. The stock narrowed its upside the following day, closing the May 5 regular session up 6.9%.

On Feb. 3, 2011, JDSU soared 18.1% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the Feb. 4 regular session up 26.9%.

On Nov. 4, 2010, JDSU dropped 2.8% in evening trading after missing Q1 revenue estimates, beating on earnings and setting in line guidance. The stock reversed direction the following day, ending the Nov. 5 regular session up 2.5%.

On Aug. 25, 2010, JDSU declined 3.6% in after-hours action after missing revenue expectations, beating on EPS, and setting Q4 revenue guidance above the Street view. The stock headed lower the following day, closing the Aug. 26 regular session down 4.7%.

On May 5, 2010, JDSU declined 7.5% in evening trading after coming in shy of Q3 revenue expectations. The stock was hammered lower the next day, closing the May 6 regular session down 20.1%.

On Feb. 2, 2010, JDSU firmed 3.2% in after-hours action after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its upside the following day, closing the Feb. 3 regular session up 4%.

On Nov. 5, 2009, JDSU advanced 4.1% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock added to its gains the following day, ending the Nov. 6 regular session up 6.4%.

On Aug. 19, 2009, JDSU slipped 0.7% in evening trading after coming in shy of revenue expectations but beating the Street's loss expectations and issuing guidance that straddled analyst estimates. The stock turned higher the following day, ending the Aug. 20 regular session up 8.1%.

On April 29, 2009, JDSU shed 12.9% in after-hours action after missing Q3 revenue expectations and setting its Q4 guidance below the Street view. The stock tumbled further the following day, losing 17.2% in the April 30 regular session.

On Feb. 5, 2009, JDSU declined 7% in after-hours trading after missing revenue expectations and setting its guidance below the Street view. It cut its downside slightly the following regular session, closing with a 6.5% decline.

On Oct. 29, 2008, the stock fell 5% after it beat with Q1 earnings but set its Q2 revenue view well below the Street's estimate. The loss extended to 8.5% the next day.

On Aug. 20, 2008, the stock dropped 10.2% during evening trading after a Q4 miss and Q1 revenue guidance below the Street view. The loss expanded to 12.4% the next day.

On April 30, 2008, the stock lost 9.8% in evening trading after reporting a Q3 revenue miss and guiding below the Street for Q4. The loss fattened to 16.1% by the closing bell the next day.

On Feb. 5, 2008, the stock jumped 19.6% as JDSU beat with Q2 results. The gain expanded the next day to 26%.

On Oct. 31, 2007, the stock fell 1.7% in evening trading despite a beat with the latest results; revenue guidance straddled the Street mean. The loss widened to 3.9% the next day.

On Aug 22, 2007, JDSU gained 3% in night trading after beating Q4 estimates and guiding for Q1 to be in line to above expectations. Shares, though, reversed course and closed the next day session down 5%.

On May 2, 2007, the stock fell 9.8% after the company beat with sales but guided below the Street. The loss was a deeper 13.8% the next day.

On Jan. 31, 2007, JDSU slipped 2.3% in the evening session despite swinging to a Q2 profit that topped Street views. Shares fell even further the next day, closing the regular session down 6%.

On Nov. 2, 2006, JDSU advanced 5.6% in after-hours trading following better-than-expected earnings results. Buyers piled into the issue the next day, goosing the stock to a 16.1% rise by the closing bell.

On Aug. 30, 2006, the stock skidded 14.4% in the night session following quarterly results that showed the company met on Q4 EPS, beat on revenue but guided for Q3 revs below the Street view. The loss increased to 16.6% the next day.

On May 3, 2006, shares fell 6% in night trading after the company reported in line with breakeven earnings but guided for revenue in a range that could disappoint. The loss increased to 6.8% the next day.

On February 1, 2006, JDSU slipped 3.8% in after hours when the company matched Q2 sales estimates and forecast Q3 sales in line with expectations. The shares trimmed their losses the next day, ending the regular session down 3.1%.

On November 9, 2005, JDSU dipped 0.4% in evening trading despite topping Q1 sales estimates, matching loss expectations and forecasting Q2 sales above Street targets. Despite a solid report, the shares fell further, ending the next day session down 4.2%.

On Sept. 1, 2005, JDSU slipped 3.2% despite topping Q1 and full-year sales estimates and guiding Q1 above the Street. It found more support in the Sept. 2 regular session, edging down 0.6%.

On April 27, 2005, JDSU slid 6% after hours after posting a Q3 non-GAAP loss, topping sales estimates, and guiding Q4 sales in line. It widened that loss in the April 28 regular session, plunging 9.7%.

JDSU shed 6.9% the night of Jan. 26, 2005, after the company reported in-line Q2 results but guided its Q3 sales below the Street view. The stock recorded more aggressive downside momentum the next day, losing 8.5% by the Jan. 27 closing bell.

JDSU was hit for an 9.1% decline the night of Oct. 27, 2004, after reporting Q1 revenue ahead of expectations but issuing Q2 guidance that fell short of current Street estimates. The stock slid a more pronounced 10.5% in the Oct. 28 regular session.

On July 28, 2004, JDSU jumped 7.6% in after-hours trading after beating expectations and boosting its guidance. The stock ramped up 14.6% by the close of the July 29 regular session.

JDSU slipped 6.7% the night of April 28, 2004 after the company topped the Street view but guided lower. It was hit for deeper declines the next day, swooning 15.8% by the closing bell.

On Jan. 28, 2004 JDSU edged down 1.7% in night trading following better-than-expected earnings results. It eked out a 1.9% decline by the close of the Jan. 29 regular session.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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