Analysis - Monday, January 13, 2002 8 p.m.
At the highs today the Dow was up another 84 points, reaching a
print high of 8869.29. We closed up 1.09. Once again the Dow ran into
resistance up near the 8900 area today. The top of our 21-Day 3 1/2%
Exponential Trading band today was 8910. The Dow's intraday high today was
8896.09.
We know the Cycles call for the next short-term high in this time
frame, January 13, plus or minus 1 day. For Tuesday, any decline below 8746
on a print basis and 8710 intraday in the Dow will suggest that short-term
Cycle high has likely been seen. A decline below 1436 in the Nasdaq
tomorrow should signal that a short-term Cycle high has been seen there. If
the above levels are broken it will then be important for the Dow to hold
above 8580 on a print basis and 8540 intraday, and for the Nasdaq to hold
above 1390. If those lower levels are broken this week our Gann weekly
Chart will turn down. A downturn in that Gann Weekly Chart is normally a
signal that an even stronger decline is coming, at least short term.
So far at least, neither the Dow or the Nasdaq have really done
anything wrong in this time frame. Not even a short-term sell signal has
been given in the Dow or the Nasdaq to this point.
We cannot rule out another test of the resistance up near or just
above 8900 tomorrow, but at this point we doubt the Dow will be able to
significantly close above that resistance. For now, we will continue
holding current positions.
source:Jerry Favors
AI
