emdyal...
My first thought was that a year drags on and weighs on investors. But then I figured that the normal buyers and sellers may have already made thier moves after the time extension announcement. Investors are getting more and more immune to bad news.
If the sp moves down I will be under water with many others here...I will have to decide whether to buy more...or just sit on it. I am in no panic situation with only 10,000 shares. It will probably depend on whether the move is on news or just low volume drifting.
If Total comes out with bad drilling news we are toast. If the news is good we will benefit. And Total may be able to somewhat make lemonaid out of lemons in block one just because of the proximity of thier current ongoing operations. I'm not saying they will encounter lemons but just trying to put it in perspective. I have no idea what they will encounter. I assume they are optimistic so I put that in the possible good news category.
If we cannot find a partner in the EEZ we are toast. The EEZ is one of our big hopes. We cannot take a partner unless they give us a free ride so it's either free ride or nothing. The cash up front will be a tell tale news item. If no cash up front then we better have some good cash flow from somewhere else. That may be why the Exile deal is so important. Maybe they know there will be no big up front cash like in the JDZ. The auction was not a booming success from what I understand. If the cash is a no go it will probably hurt the sp somewhat since we know how long these things can drag on...and no cash would not show much exuberance from the partner.
It appears that we are another year out before hearing much on the JDZ. So probably no positive news there for quite a while. And I rate it a toss up as to whether this turns out to be good news...or bad news. Total may be the deciding factor in blocks 2, 3, or 4 also. I don't think that Sinopec would be delaying this if they were confident in what more drillin would bring. I think they are waiting to see what Total turns up in block one before they will commit to more drilling. If Total were to abandon block one Sinopec would know they are on thier own in 2, 3, and 4.....and they could bail.
If ERHE does take out Exile will it be favorable to ERHE. I assume management will think so but will investors think so? It depends on the details of course.
So it was a crap shoot to start buying here but it's not like I mortgaged the farm. There are possibilities for positives...or negatives. I don't have a crystal ball. I'll just watch and be glad if I can celebrate with the rest of you. God knows you guys could use some good news. I'll hope we get some but I still think it's a crap shoot.
Badog
AI
