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Friday, March 04, 2011 11:03:46 AM
If there is a reverse split sometime in the future, the projected increases that I am putting forward would be against today's share price.
Oilbull has already addressed the owner's restricted shares. Last 10K showed that they had 160 million restricted shares. We'll see in the upcoming 10K due out April 1st what that has adjusted to.
My projections do not take into account any potential naked short position that may be in ARET. I do not factor in naked short covering with my evaluation of a company. I also am "on the fence" on the magnitude of shorts in ARET.
That being said, if there is a significant short position say of 10 million shares or more, that could add additional upward pressure on the stock.
When?
Well, for example, I am essentially short on gasoline. I have a conversion van with a 40 gallon gas tank. I have not put gas in it since $2.85. I have been betting on gasoline/oil to correct downward for some time.
Now the tank is almost empty. I am under pressure to replenish my gasoline. I gambled that the gas price would go down. Today I am going to have to put in around 38 gallons at over $3.50. I gambled wrong on the gas price and am going to pay a heck of lot more money to cover.
Will gas prices fall in the future? Possibly. Can I hold out until then. No.
Same thing for the shorts covering in ARET. It all depends when they need to cover, their threshold for pain, and when they need to move on.
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